<![CDATA[100 Bagger Hunting]]>https://www.100baggerhunting.comhttps://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!_bmV!,w_256,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F8e839181-c1b1-4db2-8f33-319d189c83bd_1024x1024.png100 Bagger Huntinghttps://www.100baggerhunting.comSubstackTue, 28 Jul 2026 15:27:26 GMT<![CDATA[400,000 words on investing, 200 articles]]>https://www.100baggerhunting.com/p/400000-words-on-investing-200-articleshttps://www.100baggerhunting.com/p/400000-words-on-investing-200-articlesFri, 24 Jul 2026 13:04:51 GMTA new milestone: more than 2 years of writing, over 200 articles written, and 400,000 words published.

Time to organize them so you can find them!

You’ll find all of them below. The articles that start with NEW, are the ones added since our last update.

Articles with a * are paid. If you want access to the full library ⬇️

Subscribe now

Categories: Start Here · Portfolio Performance · Stock Deep Dives · AI Tools for Investors · Investment Ideas · Frameworks · Lessons from Great Investors · Earnings Updates

I will be less online in the coming 2 weeks as I will be traveling to Spain with the family. More articles incoming afterward!

Start Here

New to 100 Bagger Hunting?

These are the foundations of how I think and invest.

Portfolio Performance (most recent first)

Annual, half-year, quarterly, and monthly updates on how the portfolio is doing.

Subscribe now

Stock Deep Dives (most recent first)

Individual company analyses, destination analyses, and new buy pitches.

AI Tools for Investors

How I use AI (GPT, Claude, Perplexity, Grok) to accelerate stock research. Love AI for investing?

➡️I have a dedicated newsletter on the topic: Invest with AI.

Investment Ideas

Screens, lists, and roundups — raw idea flow to dig into.

Frameworks

The reusable checklists, mental models, and tools I use to evaluate companies.

Finding Great Companies

Valuation & Multiples

Management & Capital Allocation

Buying, Selling & Position Sizing

Mindset & Mistakes

Lessons from Great Investors

Takeaways from the masters: Buffett, Lynch, Greenblatt, Karman, Kantesaria and more.

Earnings Updates

Quarterly and half-year check-ins on portfolio holdings.

May the markets be with you, always!

Kevin

]]><![CDATA[Opportunities in the medtech sector]]>https://www.100baggerhunting.com/p/opportunities-in-the-medtech-sectorhttps://www.100baggerhunting.com/p/opportunities-in-the-medtech-sectorSat, 18 Jul 2026 15:02:11 GMTEvery crisis presents opportunities.

The Center for Medicare & Medicaid Services or CMS is a powerful agency.

It dictates the reimbursement rates and rules for medical procedures, equipment, and supplies.

When CMS changes how much it is willing to pay for a treatment or a product, it directly impacts the revenues and profit margins of the companies supplying the healthcare industry.

We saw this when we covered Semler Scientific in the past.

So when you buy a medtech company that is selling their product to hospitals and physicians, you have to take CMS into account.

So the revised rules from CMS that were published over the last 2 weeks, dropped a bomb on part of the health care market.

For some, that means a crisis, but as an optimist, you always need to look for opportunities.

So we are buying.

Let me explain through first principles and unit economics.

Read more

]]><![CDATA[50% market cap in cash. 7% FCF yield.]]>https://www.100baggerhunting.com/p/50-market-cap-in-cash-7-fcf-yieldhttps://www.100baggerhunting.com/p/50-market-cap-in-cash-7-fcf-yieldFri, 10 Jul 2026 17:12:20 GMTHi hunters,

Right now, everything that is not AI or datacenter-related is likely to be underperforming. You might try to hop on that train, but you soon realize that everything has gone up fourfold in a matter of months, and everything is already priced in.

What if I were to tell you that there is still a company trading at 2x cash on the balance sheet while growing revenues in the double digits? You would think I would pitch you an unprofitable, capital-intensive, infrastructure-built-out company.

On the contrary, I’m talking about a microcap software company with the following characteristics:

  • 3y revenue CAGR 13%

  • 3y EPS CAGR 46%

  • Gross margins >75%

  • Net margins 17%

  • PEG = 0.8

The cherry on top is that activist investors, including the founders, are pushing to realize the value and have successfully changed the board’s composition.

This company came on our radar when we used our AI resilience framework, which we laid out in this article.

This tool gives a score for how resilient it is against AI disruption.

The score: 74% or resilient.

That’s all we needed to jump into this one.

Let’s dive in

Read more

]]><![CDATA[Quarterly video update (for pro)]]>https://www.100baggerhunting.com/p/quarterly-video-update-for-prohttps://www.100baggerhunting.com/p/quarterly-video-update-for-proThu, 09 Jul 2026 18:06:50 GMTHi hunters,

Yesterday, we did our video update.

It ran over 1 hour!

You’ll find all the details on the current state of affairs for all our positions below.

You will be able to:

  • Rewatch the entire video (if it asks for the passcode: 2?S1GzSB)

  • Or if you use that link, you can also just read the transcript!

  • Download the presentation itself:

GET SLIDEDECK

If you have any questi…

Read more

]]><![CDATA[The Pentagon is funding my next 100-bagger candidate]]>https://www.100baggerhunting.com/p/the-pentagon-is-funding-my-next-100https://www.100baggerhunting.com/p/the-pentagon-is-funding-my-next-100Fri, 03 Jul 2026 16:55:52 GMTHi hunters,

Let’s go through the markets and look at a company that has all the signs of a 100-bagger.

1. Bubble Meter

US margin debt continuing to trend upward through mid-2026 — market bubble-meter indicator

In our previous edition, we discussed the rising margin debt.

And it keeps on trending upward.

Now I do not want to rehash the entire analysis from last time. We talked about the difference between the SP490 and the SP500, and what all these metrics we track actually mean.

Predicting when a correction or crash happens is impossible. But we should always be aware of what the general market is doing.

2. Stu(o)ck in the funnel

Merlin (MRLN) - the setup in short

  • What: Boston aerospace-autonomy company builds an aircraft-agnostic autopilot for military + civilian planes

  • Valuation: $470M market cap on $7.7M trailing revenue (60x sales)

  • Balance sheet: $183M cash, zero debt; 6–8 quarters of runway

  • The contract: $105M US Special Operations Command contract to automate the C-130J; GE Aerospace partnership

  • The bet: First to clear FAA certification for machine learning-in-the-cockpit writes the template everyone copies

  • The problem: Better-funded rival (Reliable Robotics) may be ahead on the regulator-agreed path

  • Outcome: Binary - 0 if it loses the race, 100-bagger if it establishes a monopoly

  • My stance: On the fence, watching from the sidelines

Description: Merlin (Ticker: MRLN) is a Boston-based aerospace autonomy company. It builds Merlin Pilot, an aircraft-agnostic system designed to fly any plane, military or civilian, from takeoff to touchdown. First alongside a pilot, eventually without one. The architecture is a deterministic, rule-based flight core running in parallel with a machine-learning layer. A pure black-box AI cannot be certified for flight, so the machine-learning plans and the deterministic core guarantee the behavior. Merlin went public via SPAC in March 2026. Their anchor contract is a $105M contract with US Special Operations Command to automate the C-130J, plus a partnership with GE Aerospace targeting single-pilot operations. Trailing revenue is about $7.7M. Q1 showed a $90M net loss, mostly non-cash SPAC accounting. Cash is $183M, zero debt.

Type: Pre-revenue defense-tech microcap

Why it’s interesting: A certification race where the customer pays for the R&D, with a binary outcome.

The rundown: At roughly a $470M market cap on under $8M of revenue, you’re paying 60x sales for a company that loses money on purpose. The entire value is future optionality.

Here’s the bet. The flying part of autonomous flight is largely solved. Autopilots have existed for decades. The unsolved problem is certification: the FAA framework requires verifying every output of a flight-critical system, and a machine-learning system has effectively infinite outputs. No accepted compliance method for ML in the cockpit exists yet. Whoever first gets a new autonomy function through FAA certification writes the template that everyone else must follow. That approval, not any funding round, is where the first signs of an actual moat appear.

Merlin’s edge is that defense money pays for the evidence. USSOCOM funds the development; military airworthiness is a lower bar than civil certification; and every assurance artifact generated on the C-130J is partly reusable for the civil case later. Someone else foots the bill. The program passed its Critical Design Review in June, and the stock jumped 32% premarket. For a pre-revenue name, milestones are the earnings reports.

What Merlin does not have is a clear technical lead. The two-layer deterministic-plus-ML architecture is smart, but it’s table stakes. Everyone in the field converged on it. Reliable Robotics claims to have the only FAA-approved certification plan for full automation, to have flown fully uncrewed, and to have raised roughly $294M, compared with Merlin’s $134M in lifetime funding. On the regulator-agreed path, Merlin is behind.

Now the cash position. $183M in the bank. Management guides to $62M in burn for 2026, but if we take the Q1 results, it annualizes closer to $95M. Let’s call it six to eight quarters of runway. The bull case is that defense revenue scales before the market tires of funding the burn. The bear case is that certification takes more time, and they will need to raise more cash.

This is not a compounder, and it is not a value stock. It’s a call option on a regulatory event, partially funded by the Pentagon, with two years on the clock and a better-funded competitor possibly ahead in the queue. The outcome is binary. It could go to 0 because it loses the race. And it could become a 100-bagger if it were to establish a monopoly in autonomous flight.

Current status: On the fence. One thing I did not mention is that insiders are aligned.

Normally I would show you a per-share metrics chart from fiscal.ai, but that doesn’t make a lot of sense here, so here is the insider ownership table:

Merlin (MRLN) insider ownership table showing management and SPAC-sponsor equity stakes held rather than sold
Insider ownership at Merlin (MRLN)

And that the way the SPAC was structured was unusual for a typical SPAC (meaning some people did not take profits; they went full equity, all in on this company). So I’m watching from the sidelines for the moment. If Merlin has a regulator-agreed compliance path, this setup becomes more bullish (or at least they are actively developing it with the regulator).

Subscribe now

3. Best article of the week

What I loved reading this week was an article written by called:

Polymath Investor
Your Odds Are Not the Average
The average outcome and the typical outcome are not the same thing. In most areas of life you can ignore that distinction. In investing, it can be the difference between wealth and ruin…
Read more
4 months ago · 93 likes · 6 comments · Polymath Investor

It explores ergodicity. (There’s a whole book about this topic written by Luca Dellanna)

Ergo… what?

Yeah, I had the same reaction when I first heard about it. This does not comply with my Feynman approach to explaining things.

The basic definition is as follows:

Ergodicity is whether your path through time averages out to the same thing as a snapshot of the whole crowd.

  • If yes, ergodic.

  • If not, the crowd’s average is not what you should expect for yourself

A typical example is the following experiment: a coin-flip game.

  • Heads, you win 50%

  • Tails, you lose 40%

So if you math this out, 1.5 on every win, 0.6 on every loss, over time, you’ll get 1.05 or 5% on every flip.

But in reality, that’s not what happens.

You don’t get “the average.” You get a sequence. You flip, and flip, and flip, and your money doesn’t add; it multiplies, because each flip acts on whatever you have left. Say you flip heads, then tails. 1.5 times 0.6 is 0.9. You’re down to 90 percent. Do it again: another heads-and-tails, 0.9 times 0.9. Every pair of flips quietly eats a tenth of you. Keep going, and you’ll go broke.

So if 10,000 people at a concert do the coin flip test, the entire crowd will be up 5% per flip. But not everyone in the crowd will be up. Some will be broke.

What can we learn from this:

Survival compounds. The goal is to stay in the game. Maybe you’re down a couple of percent this year. That’s not a problem. Avoid big drawdowns in your portfolio. Those hurt the compounding the most.

May the markets be with you, always!

Kevin

]]><![CDATA[26x revenue in the next 5 to 7 years]]>https://www.100baggerhunting.com/p/26x-revenue-in-the-next-5-to-7-yearshttps://www.100baggerhunting.com/p/26x-revenue-in-the-next-5-to-7-yearsFri, 26 Jun 2026 14:52:52 GMTHi hunters,

Before diving into the meat of this article, 3 things are going on behind the screen:

  • Finishing a write-up on a new company (shall be published soon)

  • Finalizing my analysis of the best pitches from Omaha

  • Hunting for interesting opportunities that were presented during the Microcap Las Vegas conference last week

I know it’s hot and maybe your scheduled holidays are coming up, but good things are coming.

Since 3 CEOs of our holdings were also presenting in Las Vegas, I think it’s time to review all these positions and give you an updated view of each.

Let’s start with the CEO, who announced a possible 26x increase in revenue over the next 5 to 7 years…

Read more

]]><![CDATA[A cheap AI-resilient software play]]>https://www.100baggerhunting.com/p/a-cheap-ai-resilient-software-playhttps://www.100baggerhunting.com/p/a-cheap-ai-resilient-software-playFri, 19 Jun 2026 15:24:58 GMTHi hunters,

Let’s go through the markets and look at an interesting software company.

1. Bubble Meter

Weekly performance table of major indices and the author's watchlist

Over the past couple of months, I’ve been saying, “The market looks hot.”

And what happens?

The market just keeps ripping. 😉

You can see it in the table above. Let’s dive a little deeper…

The Shiller P/E ratio

Shiller P/E ratio of the S&P 500 over time, currently near dot-com-era highs
Source: https://www.multpl.com/shiller-pe.

Note: A gentleman asked me last week, when I was lecturing at a conference on “How to use Claude as a junior analyst”, to let Claude draw this chart. It succeeded, but there were some errors.

So yeah, we’re nearing the peak of the dot-com bubble. (The Shiller P/E divides the S&P 500 index by the average-inflation adjusted earnings over the past 10 years.)

But then the natural first question becomes: What do earnings look like?

  • EPS of the S&P500 right before the dot-com crash: 52

  • EPS of the S&P500 today: 234

That means that, when looking at the overall S&P 500, we’re not in a 2000 bubble at this time.

Then the question becomes: how is the EPS distributed across the 500 largest companies in the US?

36% of that net income comes from the TOP 10 companies:

Share of S&P 500 net income from the top 10 companies — about 36%
Source: https://en.macromicro.me/charts/142686/us-sp-500-top-10-companies-market-cap-revenue-earnings-share

So we have a shller P/E that looks high, and a trailing P/E that is lower than in 2000.

It all comes back to margin.

The net margin has increased for the entire S&P 500 over the years. If it stays high, then the Shiller P/E overstates the risk.

But the more worrisome is the margin debt, which is now the second-highest since 1997.

S&P 500 net margin trend and NYSE margin debt near its highest level since 1997

What this means is that investors have borrowed near-record amounts against the stocks they already own in order to buy even more stock, and that pile of borrowed money is the fuel that turns an ordinary market dip into a crash.

So we cannot use it to predict WHEN a crash will happen. The only thing we can say is that if something triggers it, the more margin debt in the system, the more fuel it adds to the crash (downwards).

So what do we do?

We don’t really change our strategy. Hunt for treasures in the microcap space. The only thing we might lean towards is placing more weight on current free cash flows and assessing whether the company’s business model is AI-resilient in the near future.

(You can check what we did with 100 software companies here.)

Remember the master:

More money is lost waiting for corrections than in them

-Peter Lynch

Subscribe now

2. Stu(o)ck in the funnel: RADCOM (RDCM)

Description: RADCOM (Ticker: RDCM) is an Israeli telecom software company. It sells service assurance and network observability software to telecom operators, basically the tooling that lets a carrier see what’s happening inside its network in real time. The flagship is RADCOM ACE, an AI-driven analytics platform, and in February, it launched Neura, an AI agent suite for autonomous networks. In 2025, it generated a record $71.5M in revenue, was profitable with a net margin of roughly 17%, and had $108M in cash and no debt. Customers are Tier-1 operators (historically Rakuten Symphony, 1GLOBAL, and AT&T).

Type: Microcap Software company that looks cheap

Why it’s interesting: Profitable company with activists trying to unlock the value from the balance sheet.

The rundown: This isn’t a turnaround, and it is not a sinking ship. It’s a quiet compounder the market has lost interest in. It grows double digits, runs 20% margins, and generates cash. The headline trailing P/E is 17, which looks unremarkable. But half the market cap is cash. Market cap is $210M, cash is $108M, and there is no debt, so the enterprise value is only $103M. Strip the cash, and you’re paying roughly 8x earnings for a business growing 10%. PEG sits at 0.7. For a profitable telecom-software grower, that’s cheap.

Quick financials:

RADCOM (RDCM) quick financials: $71.5M revenue, ~17% net margin, $108M cash, no debt

Per share chart from fiscal.ai

GET 15% OFF FISCAL

Per share revenue and earnings growth, with a high forward earnings yield and a lot of cash on the balance sheet.

Not a 100-bagger, but you might make some money from it.

Current Status: Still doing my due diligence, might turn into a full analysis in the coming weeks.

3. Best article of the week

Sparkline publishes some great research. And a month ago, they published a piece on AI disruption.

It’s not just about software disruption; Sparkline goes deep into the history of disruption in general.

And based on their research, we have reached a new peak, with 72% of US companies now actively exposed to disruption:

Sparkline chart showing 72% of US companies now exposed to AI disruption
Source: Sparkline Capital

They looked into the past and wondered, why did a company like Walmart survive disruption from e-commerce?

The answer is their intangible moat.

Sparkline defines the intangible value factor as including intellectual property, brand, human capital, and network effects.

And this can be applied to software specifically:

Sparkline definition of software's intangible moats

These moats are widest in enterprise software, where products often serve as mission-critical systems of record, integrate deeply into customer workflows, and face onerous security and compliance requirements. Even before AI coding, customers had the option to build software in-house or switch to cheaper startups with more modern infrastructure – yet most did not. Rather than reinvent the wheel, they chose to outsource to trusted partners.

They then placed software stocks that had been beaten down by more than 30% this year into a quadrant.

The top-right quadrant means: Early AI adopters with a strong intangible moat.

If you look at the number of bubbles, most of the companies are on the bottom-left side.

Sparkline quadrant of beaten-down software stocks by AI adoption and intangible moat strength

Bottom line: Applying this intangible value factor reveals a small selection of software stocks that might outperform over the next few years thanks to their moats and early adoption of AI.

I recommend reading the full article here.

Next week, we’ll look at a full analysis for Microcap Las Vegas.

Over 100 companies presented, so let’s see if we can find the best ones.

May the markets be with you, always!

Kevin

]]><![CDATA[Pharmx Update: Interview with the CEO]]>https://www.100baggerhunting.com/p/pharmx-update-interview-with-thehttps://www.100baggerhunting.com/p/pharmx-update-interview-with-theTue, 16 Jun 2026 14:04:52 GMTPharmx (PHX.AX) is our biggest position.

If you’ve never heard about the company before, please read our deep dive first.

Last week, we sat down with Tom Culver, the CEO of Pharmx.

As usual, we prepared more questions than we had time to ask.

Tom gave a lot of additional color to what is happening inside the company, and our understanding of the business has grown once more.

And some of the information was revealing:

This is why we’ll only be able to grow our top line by 20 to 30% per year instead of 50%.

We try to get in touch with the management of all our holdings to delve deeper into each business case. All premium members get direct access to this kind of deeper due diligence.

Subscribe now

Let’s go through the full Q&A.

Read more

]]><![CDATA[This $400m microcap is the hidden backbone of the world Cup]]>https://www.100baggerhunting.com/p/this-400m-microcap-is-the-hiddenhttps://www.100baggerhunting.com/p/this-400m-microcap-is-the-hiddenFri, 12 Jun 2026 14:13:53 GMTHi hunters!

I used to be a soccer fan, a long time ago, when my hair was less grey.

Now, I only look at some matches when a World Cup is on.

Which is today, right on the day of the SpaceX IPO.

Let’s take a look at a company that profits from these kinds of events, and who recently dropped 20% in price.

In this article, we are going to look at a company that plays a key and lucrative role in the industry that brings live sports events into the homes of billions of fans.

This company created its own ecosystem and built a trusted brand for more than a decade, with gross margins over 70% and net margins over 15% while reaccelerating revenue.

Whereas most businesses in sports are barely profitable, this company found its niche and is looking to transform itself to capture most of the biggest infrastructure upgrade cycles in decades.

Company Snapshot

Cybersecurity services | EVS

  • Company: EVS Broadcast Equipment

  • Ticker: EVS

  • Exchange: NYSE EURONEXT

  • Industry: Communications Equipment

  • Market Cap: $400M

  • Founding year: 1994

  • Gross Margins: 70%

  • ROIC: 20%

  • Guidance for 2026: $230M (11% growth)

Executive Summary: The architecture of live production

The value chain

EVS Broadcast Equipment designs and sells the hardware and software layers that facilitate the capture, management, and engagement of live video content. At its core, EVS solves the problem of instantaneous storytelling. It allows operators to capture dozens of high-resolution video feeds, synchronize them, and create a broadcast-ready slow-motion highlight or tactical review within seconds of the event. EVS is essentially the Adobe of live production, providing the essential, high-end toolkit that professionals rely on to turn raw footage into a finished masterpiece in seconds.

Let’s use the Champions League quarter-final between Bayern Munich and Real Madrid as a real-world example.

The Live Sports Broadcasting Value Chain: Where the Real Money Is

Rights owners: UEFA controls the rights to the Champions League and sells them to Broadcasters for billions. The rights are being auctioned ahead of every season.

Broadcasters and streamers: Sky, Amazon, and DAZN pay enormous sums for those rights and monetize via subscriptions and advertising. They then, most of the time, outsource production to…

OB van operators: Companies like NEP Group and Gravity Media own the trucks, hire the crews, and run the entire live production. They bill broadcasters per event or on long-term contracts. They are operationally complex with lower margins.

Broadcast Equipment: Unlike many technology vendors in the broadcast sector that occupy peripheral or replaceable segments of the value chain, EVS provides the fundamental recording, replay, and media-processing architecture for the world’s biggest live events.

Broadcasters are volatile, OB operators are margin-constrained, and EVS is the high-margin, mission-critical, locked-in supplier that wins regardless of who holds the rights.

As customers, we pay for a subscription and get to see these games live. We get to see dozens of camera angles on the pitch, which are the input data that EVS captures. Replay operators use EVS to edit the game while it’s still happening. Adding slow motion and choosing the best angles to show you exactly what happened. Once the game is over, TV stations around the world can instantly access the footage and show it to fans on their phones or in news broadcasts. It also powers the VAR Assistant.

Business Model

EVS segments its revenue into three categories:

Yep, you can easily chart segment revenue breakdown with fiscal.ai

  • Live Audience Business (LAB): These are customers who have built their own infrastructure to manage their content, such as Sky, ESPN, or stadiums like Real Madrid’s Santiago Bernabéu. EVS can score higher margins in this segment through its recently launched SaaS model and its ecosystem bundle.

  • Live Service Providers: These are clients like NEP Group and Gravity Media that own a fleet of vans and are contracted to broadcast events. They are the largest buyers of EVS hardware, often purchasing dozens of servers to equip a single large fleet of trucks at lower margins than LAB customers.

  • Big-event rental: These are large contracts for events like the Olympics and the World Cup, where top-quality equipment is needed to ensure reliable broadcasting.

The growth story here is LAB customers who are increasingly broadcasting their own content.

Competitive Advantages

EVS positioned itself as the default operating system of live sports production. This positioning comes from deep product entrenchment, operator lock-in, and a proven track record at the world’s highest-stakes live events. EVS built a sticky ecosystem around its own hardware and software that a software-only player can’t match. As mentioned before, their products are on the same level as Adobe’s professional products, but in the broadcasting space.

They developed operator familiarity over decades. There are over 3,000 operators globally who have spent 10-20 years mastering the EVS remote. Switching from EVS to a competitor would require retraining the entire freelance crew, introducing unacceptable operational risk for the broadcaster. The maintenance and support renewal rate is exceptionally high, estimated at over 95% for Tier-1 broadcasters. This gives EVS pricing power, as it has an intangible asset that justifies premium pricing due to its high reliability.

Subscribe now

The SaaS Transition

Historically, software was a free or low-cost add-on to sell servers or hardware in general. Now the company is pivoting its value proposition from high upfront Capex with long-milestone payments to multi-year subscriptions with software at its center. This recurring revenue mode is expected to exceed 50% of the mix by 2026–2027. This is important for them because it means that they can decouple their base business from its cyclicality.

Strategic Roadmap: PLAYForward 2030

The SaaS Transition is also underscored by management’s stated “BHAG” (Big Hairy Audacious Goal): to be the #1 solution provider in the live video industry by 2030, with a revenue target of $350mn. To achieve this, they plan on executing their strategy via three pillars:

  • From product provider to ecosystem:

    • from pure hardware sales (CAPEX) to software and SaaS models (OPEX)

    • from OB van operators to broadcast centers

    • from sports-only to entertainment, news, and digital

    • from a replay specialist to a live production ecosystem in multi-tier markets

  • Strategic M&A Track Record:

    They recently started ramping up their M&A activity to accelerate their technology through:

    • Axon (2020) is now part of the MediaInfra division with its control (Cerebrum) and IP-gateway (Neuron) technology.

    • MOG Technologies (2024) was acquired to add to the MediaCeption portfolio, with its cloud-based transcoding and ingest capabilities.

    • Telemetrics & XD Motion (2025) is now the T-Motion robotics division, used to expand the ecosystem to include automated camera capture.

    Those businesses are expected to contribute around €30 million in revenue, accounting for 14% of total revenue in 2025.

  • Geographic Strategy “Double Down North America”:

    North America is EVS’s fastest-growing region, contributing 37,5% of revenue in 2025. North America is the largest and most competitive market, driven by massive sports media rights deals (NFL, NBA, MLB) and a concentration of Big Tech (Amazon, Apple) entering the live arena.

Management

The founder is still on board as the CTO of the hardware department (the largest insider owner,>6%). The CEO is an industry veteran who joined in 2019. He pushed the PLAYForward strategy and the aggressive move into IP and North America.

The live broadcast equipment industry

The broadcast equipment industry is currently passing through its most significant structural pivot since the transition from analog to digital. Historically defined by proprietary hardware and quadrennial sporting cycles, the sector is evolving into a software-defined, IP-native, and AI-augmented ecosystem.

Addressable Market

source: investor relations

EVS’s own estimated TAM is the best approximation for what the company could address since it does not compete across the entire live broadcast market. It targets tier-1 sports broadcasters and OB van operators for whom downtime is simply not an option. From where we are now, the company projects the TAM will double by 2030, which is ambitious but justified by their product and market expansion.

Demand-side

It is important to note that EVS’s demand has historically followed a power-law distribution of spend. The top 10 global broadcasters and sports federations (e.g., NBCUniversal, BBC, Sky, FIFA) account for more than half of enterprise spend on high-end production kits. This gave them bargaining power over EVS, but it also meant that they chose EVS because of an existing trust relationship.

Streaming Platforms Entering Live Production

In recent years, however, the entry of Amazon, Netflix, Apple, and DAZN into live sports rights has brought substantial fresh capital into the market. They spent a combined $12.5 billion on sports rights in 2025, representing 20% of the global total sports rights spend of $64 billion. These new entrants need to either build, rent, or partner to ensure a good broadcast experience for their customers. This structurally expands the addressable customer base for EVS and OB operators alike.

The best part is that EVS doesn’t care whether it’s Sky, Amazon, or DAZN buying the rights. As long as high-end live production is happening, EVS gets paid. And since it is the de facto default operating system of live sports production, all professionals needed will demand EVS’s products.

Supply-side

source: investor relations

The overall market share for broadcast technology is fairly evenly distributed, with no player exceeding 12%, according to EVS’s own management. Historically, the sector struggled with declining revenues due to the decline of TV. This led to consolidation pressured by PE and the expectation of synergies.

Established Players

  • EVS stayed independent and kept a tight focus on live production, which is their bread and butter. In recent times, however, they have begun to strengthen their share in other pillars, such as Infrastructure and Media Asset Management, through M&A. This is strategically important, as current trends demand an overall package with greater control across the value chain.

  • Grass Valley was taken private by Black Dragon Capital in 2021. Grass Valley has emerged as EVS’s most direct competitor, with comprehensive end-to-end solutions and leadership in cloud platforms. The company competes aggressively by leveraging bundled pricing strategies in major sports contracts.

  • Avid Technology was taken private by the PE firm STG in November 2023 in an all-cash deal valued at roughly $1.4 billion. It overlaps with EVS in the newsroom and Media Asset Management adjacency. Avid’s competitive pressure on EVS comes from owning the creative and editorial layer of the value chain that EVS is increasingly trying to reach through MediaCeption.

  • Evertz Technologies is listed on the Toronto Stock Exchange (TSX: ET). Its centre of gravity is the broadcast infrastructure. Therefore, it competes with EVS primarily in the MediaInfra pillar rather than in live replay, making it an adjacent infrastructure specialist more than a direct threat to EVS’s core.

  • Sony’s broadcast business sits inside the professional solutions arm of Sony Group Corporation, the publicly traded Japanese conglomerate. Sony R&D depth and balance-sheet scale can’t be matched by any pure-play vendor. Sony dominates cameras, sensors and image quality, but it has been deliberately building toward an end-to-end position that competes with EVS’s own ambitions to own more of the chain. The result is a “frenemy” dynamic with EVS because their systems are routinely deployed alongside Sony cameras.

A risk worth monitoring for me is the entry of PE capital trying to consolidate the market to increase pricing power, like in the case of Grass Valley. For EVS, this could result in margin pressure fueled by seemingly infinite money that distorts competition, as seen in the case of Chelsea Football Club and professional football. On the other hand, it could also result in a takeover bid for EVS with a premium between 25% and 40% over today’s price (Avid at 32% over the share price at that time).

Risks

EVS operates in a growing market driven by streaming, but is transforming due to the cloud. More live sports events and more streaming buyers expand the volume of production needed, but cloud-native production workflows threaten to gradually commoditize the hardware layer that EVS has historically monetized at 70%+ gross margins. They redraw the competitive map and hand EVS both its biggest long-term risk and its clearest strategic imperative. This transformation can be categorized into two simultaneous shifts.

The architectural shift: from on-premise to cloud-native production

The industry is moving past the binary choice between on-premises and cloud, with compute, switching, and playout occurringhappen in the cloud rather than in a physical OB truck. Grass Valley’s AMPP platform, AWS Elemental MediaLive and Adobe’s Frame.io integrations are the clearest articulations of this vision. For a vendor whose heritage is purpose-built hardware, this is the most serious threat as it questions not the product, but the premise.

The business-model shift: CAPEX → OPEX

Broadcasters and OB operators are under structural pressure to move away from large upfront capital expenditures, such as buying servers outright, toward operating-expense models. The shift is double-edged. Done well, it converts lumpy, event-driven hardware sales into predictable recurring revenue. Done poorly, it cannibalizes the high-margin hardware business before the software revenue stream is mature enough to replace it. The classic SaaS J-curve.

EVS’s answer: Balanced Computing

EVS’s response is a deliberate bet against the binary. Rather than choosing on-prem or cloud, it is positioning itself around a hybrid model in which high-performance on-prem hardware handles what genuinely requires it, while cloud modules handle everything else in a more elastic way.

Conclusion

The company’s bet is that ultra-low-latency live replay is the last function to move to the cloud, that the 2-second requirement for a Super Bowl replay is a hard physical constraint that keeps dedicated on-site hardware relevant for longer than skeptics assume. So far, the market has validated that bet.

Whether it holds through 2030 is the kicker question!

The opportunity - why the shift to IP matters for EVS

One of the most underappreciated drivers behind EVS’s growth is the industry’s migration from SDI (Serial Digital Interface) to IP (Internet Protocol) infrastructure. Think of SDI as dedicated cables each carrying a single video signal point-to-point, and IP as a flexible, software-defined network. For decades, live production ran on SDI.

Crucially, this is a structural transition over time, making it a long, staggered investment cycle for equipment vendors.

For EVS, that cycle reshapes what it can sell. In the SDI world, EVS sold replay servers, which it pioneered and still dominates. In an IP world, feeds, metadata, replay, routing, and control all run on a single network, and that complexity is an addressable market: EVS can now sell the control systems, orchestration software, and infrastructure layer that tie the whole production together. The prize is the shift from selling one box to capturing a far larger share of each customer’s infrastructure budget.

But IP is not pure upside. The same shift onto standard hardware and networks that expands EVS’s market also lowers the barrier that protected purpose-built broadcast hardware, letting software and cloud players into the same workflows.

For an investor, this is ultimately a revenue-mix story where EVS is trying to turn a cyclical, hardware-driven business into one with more software and recurring revenue. If it works, EVS re-rates from a hardware vendor toward a stickier platform business; if the hardware base erodes faster than software can scale, it becomes the J-curve risk.

The Financials - why EVS stood still for a decade

We use fiscal.ai for all our charting. Grab a 15% discount through this link.

GRAB 15% DISCOUNT

In EVS’s 2023 annual report, the company acknowledged a plateau in revenues since 2012. The cause was structural. Even though EVS dominated live replay servers, the market matured as the company only replaced outdated equipment. And for years, EVS simply failed to build a second pillar because its replay franchise was so dominant that it became a comfortable trap. To counter this inertia, the new CEO announced the PlayForward Strategy mentioned earlier.

On the margin side, it looks similar, as the company’s margins are in a slightly downward trend over a 10-year perspective. This is partly due to North American expansion, which increased SG&A costs.

The ROIC and ROE are moving on a similar plateau between 17-25%, which is similar to Evertz.

How much does EVS invest in the future?

EVS is, at its core, an engineering company where R&D is the real investment in the future and almost as big as SG&A. The business itself is high-margin, asset-light, and cash-generative, with excellent existing economics but historically mediocre incremental returns. This should change as EVS revenue becomes more predictable, as evidenced by order backlog visibility. Entering 2026, EVS has a record order book of €182.2 million. This provides coverage for nearly 80% of the 2026 revenue guidance (€220-240 million).

EVS pays a €1.10 dividend at a ~35% earnings payout ratio, while still accumulating net cash. This tells me that EVS has a hard time finding enough high-return projects to absorb them. That is the classic signature of a high-quality but low-reinvestment-runway business.

The counter-signal is management’s public ambition of reaching €350m in annual revenue by 2030. If they mean it, the reinvestment rate should rise from here, and that is the number to watch, not the current margin.

So, although the past looks bad and the future looks promising, is this company a BUY or not?

In the end, it’s all about valuation, as a great company can still be a bad investment.

So what is EVS worth?

Read more

]]><![CDATA[How to find your investing edge for outsized returns]]>https://www.100baggerhunting.com/p/how-to-find-your-investing-edge-forhttps://www.100baggerhunting.com/p/how-to-find-your-investing-edge-forFri, 05 Jun 2026 14:39:11 GMTHi hunters,

If you’re new here.

My name is Kevin, and after 15 years in the markets, this is my investing strategy.

Our 2 portfolios, created at the start of 2025, are doing well, outpacing the S&P500 nicely.

  • No leverage.

  • No short positions.

  • Uncorrelated to the S&P500.

We are sitting on a 45% return since inception compared to the S&P’s 28%.

I mainly hunt for microcaps that can double several times. And as long as the business keeps performing, we can keep holding and maybe nail a 100-bagger.

If this strategy resonates with you, you can unlock the full content, all 400,000 words ⬇️

Subscribe now

Today, we’re going to talk about edges. And why it’s important to find your own.

Bill Miller, a renowned value investor, mentioned in the past that an investor’s edge can be sourced in 3 areas:

  1. Information

  2. Your process

  3. Your behavior

What I consider my edge can be broken down into 3 parts:

  1. Choosing the right arena: Microcaps

  2. Having a unique lens: Grounded in physics

  3. Amplifying my entire process (ideas, research) through AI

This may surprise you, but I do not consider myself a growth, value, or quality investor. (although growth is always needed)

I don’t want to be locked inside a category.

I hunt for mispricings in the market.

Mispricings mean the market prices a stock below its intrinsic value.

Why?

Behavior is important, but information asymmetry is often overlooked.

Information asymmetry means:

  • Having information that the market does not (very rare)

  • Having information that the market only recognizes slowly (rare)

  • Processing information in a unique way to create a different view (more common)

That asymmetry is most pronounced in the microcap space. Constructing a different view is easier thanks to my background in nuclear physics.

Let’s go through Bill Miller’s framework and how you can think about this for yourself.

The informational edge

Information is what we discussed in the introduction. The fact that you have information the market does not have, or has not recognized yet.

When Buffett was browsing through the Moody’s manuals, going through thousands of pages all those decades ago, he was exploiting an informational edge.

As you can see, a Moody’s page is not very sexy.

Imagine browsing through thousands of these.

In that time, you did not have an online broker. Quotes for stocks were displayed in the newsletter. If you wanted to buy a stock, you had to call your bank, and it took time.

Time flowed more slowly back then.

But going through those manuals, Buffett did something few others did. He took the time and effort to search for a needle in a haystack.

He created information asymmetry for himself.

And when he started out, he hunted for small companies, sometimes obscure, with low liquidity. Focusing on their balance sheet, buying companies at 25% of their cash value. Coca-Cola and Apple came later, when he had significant capital to deploy.

Buffett is a very smart man. And a shrewd investor. That’s without a doubt.

Last year in Omaha, I was impressed by how sharp he still is at 94.

But what he did in his early days had nothing to do with being smart.

  • He chose a specific arena: Micro and small caps

  • He hunted for information asymmetry: Going through the Moody’s manuals

And this asymmetry was even more pronounced when he became known as a smart businessman looking to buy companies.

He did not only have to hunt for ideas as we do.

Ideas came to him.

He got a deal flow that is not accessible to most investors.

That again is an example of information asymmetry.

The processing edge

The beauty (and difficulty) of the stock market is that 2 analysts, with exactly the same information, can come to different conclusions.

Making money in the markets is about creating a variant view of what the market has priced in.

And a variant view is created by having a unique process (or unique information).

Did Buffett have a unique process?

I don’t think so.

But what he did do was be very picky about what he was processing. He chose his arena carefully.

Before trying to be the best at a certain game, be mindful of what game you want to play.

He only looked at things he deeply understood.

By gaining a deep understanding, you gain conviction.

Through conviction, you withstand volatility in the markets.

That’s how you make money. It avoids you selling at lows.

So even if Buffett did not have a unique process, that doesn’t mean you can’t.

My process is grounded in physics. Yours could be completely different based on your background.

What helps is writing it down. (for me)

Buffett has never written down his process. (Others have tried in numerous books, though.)

The behavioral edge

If you’re a quant, all decisions are based on rules.

Buy on X, sell on Y.

I’m not a quant, and I am envious of their strong process. The human element is involved only in constructing the process itself.

Master Quantitative Trading: Strategies and Profit Opportunities

So why don’t all quants win, even if their backtesting shows outperformance over multiple decades?

Because there will be years when a quant process underperforms, while the rest of the market does well. (you can see this in backtesting).

That’s hard.

Imagine your quant portfolio is down 15%, and the market is ripping.

You start doubting your process. Do I need to change it? And most investors will intervene, possibly breaking a great quant strategy, because they could not stomach a temporary loss.

Buying a position is easy. It’s the easiest decision one can make. Behavior still matters, though. Don’t chase a stock because of FOMO.

Buy because you did the work. Have a variant view of the market. No emotion.

But behavior is a much bigger factor when volatility kicks in. It comes down to the question:

When do you sell a position?

  • My stock is down 30%, what do I do?

  • My stock is up 100%, what do I do?

  • My stock has done nothing for a whole year. What do I do?

The perfect setup is when your business keeps performing, and the stock price tracks performance perfectly.

But that never happens.

Many investors say their edge is taking a long-term view. Decades.

It’s easier said than done. And most companies don’t earn your attention for a full decade. Most falter. Only a few outperform.

Our solution to solve the behavioral problem is the 2 last two parts of our edge.

Our process, grounded in physics, aims to eliminate emotional decision-making. Like a quant, we want our process to be so strong that it becomes the primary reason for a decision.

Secondly, one of the prime uses of AI is to counter our behavioral biases. It’s our bullshit detector. AI is designed to conform to you. But you need to set it up so that it disagrees with you.

You can do some incredible things with Claude: build advanced screeners and automate portfolio tracking, but the number one use case remains pushing back on your ideas.

We’ve written about different behavioral biases in the past. Check them out in our archive.

How to find your edge?

Start by thinking about it.

Take a pencil and a piece of paper. Use the Bill Miller framework.

Now write down what you believe your edge is.

If you struggle at first, don’t sweat. It’s an iterative process. You write down what you know. And you come back to it once a year. Over time, your edge will surface.

One thing is important: Notice that our edge is very specific. We choose an arena. We use a unique lens. We state how we want to tackle our behavior.

If you write down: My edge is: ‘I think long-term’.

That’s not enough.

What actions are you taking to support that claim? Apply first principles. Try to break it down to its bare bones.

Get away from the abstract and write down specifics.

A unique edge could look like this. Let’s say you’re a medical doctor.

  • Arena: We only invest in the healthcare sector

  • Lens: Biology. You analyze companies with a unique framework. (There’s a great book: What I learned about investing from Darwin)

Every investor’s process is unique. It is based on past experiences and learnings.

The goal is to keep learning and refining your process every year.

It took me 15 years to find my edge. And maybe in 5 years, it will have changed again.

It’s a journey, not a destination.

So, a final question: Care to share your edge?

Leave a comment

May the markets be with you, always!

Kevin (Atomical Capital)

P.S.: Write-up almost ready on a new company + update on some of the holdings. Stay tuned. Got delayed a bit due to sickness.

]]><![CDATA[Portfolio update: May 2026]]>https://www.100baggerhunting.com/p/portfolio-update-may-2026https://www.100baggerhunting.com/p/portfolio-update-may-2026Fri, 22 May 2026 15:06:51 GMTHi hunters,

Let’s take a look at all our positions in both portfolios.

Since we started tracking both portfolios at the start of 2025, we have a total return since inception of 35.3%, or, today, a CAGR of 19.8%. (versus our current 15% hurdle rate).

We are sitting on an outperformance of about 9% versus the S&P 500 since we started sharing at the start of last year.

Are we happy with that?

Yes.

It meets our hurdle rate, and based on our information today, we believe our companies will continue to create value over the coming years, leading to an even greater rerating of their market prices. (especially if our biggest position starts performing)

But humility is important.

Keep refining the process. Keep underwriting the positions.

I’m working on a couple of new ideas. I’ll also write about what I finally did with those 15 pitches from Omaha. Which ones survived my investing funnel, and do I plan to take a new position?

If you haven’t read those, you can find all pitches here:

Best pitches from Omaha part 1

Best pitches from Omaha part 2

Best pitches from Omaha part 3

Now, let me explain what happened with each company and what my plan is for each.

I use a tool we custom-built called Tracker to help me keep track of companies. It saves me hours each week. I talked about it in this article.

Here’s the analysis of why I think our portfolios are well-positioned for strong returns towards the end of the year.

All charts used sources from fiscal.ai

Read more

]]><![CDATA[Power scarcity creates massive tailwinds]]>https://www.100baggerhunting.com/p/power-scarcity-creates-massive-tailwindshttps://www.100baggerhunting.com/p/power-scarcity-creates-massive-tailwindsTue, 19 May 2026 15:44:18 GMTYesterday, NUAI gave a business update.

Find our initial thesis on NUAI here.

Price action was wild:

But we know this was going to be a bumpy ride.

A speculative bet, in a speculative stock.

So I ran my tracker agent to read the transcript and go through the business update. Then it compares this new information to our initial thesis.

It concluded: Thesis intact.

I then got the report and analyzed it.

Here’s what matters:

The good

54 acres of land

They entered into a binding agreement on the 54 acres of additional land they wanted to purchase. That doesn’t mean the deal is closed, but it’s on its way.

We flagged it as a “kill condition” in our thesis because, based on our understanding, it was an explicit demand from their hyperscaler client.

So this is a big milestone in the development of this project.

And just to show you how our tracker surfaces the kill conditions, it looks like this:

All other kill conditions remain on the table.

This company is a free sample. If you want to continue receiving these kinds of articles + deep dives and everything else, please consider taking a subscription.

Subscribe now

Phase 1: bypassing the ERCOT queue

This was already hinted at in a previous update. Their first 200 MW is not a behind-the-meter solution. That means they need a grid connection, but they remain vague on how this will be implemented: By using existing infrastructure.

This is an assumption, but the only way they can pull this off, and effectively bypass the ERCOT queue for grid interconnection:

  1. Negotiate a power purchase agreement with Vistra or Calpine plants

  2. Because they are adjacent: They can probably connect to an existing substation (and not directly into the grid)

  3. The 54-acre corridor allows them to build this connection

No new power means no air permits needed for phase 1.

This makes everything a lot simpler.

Phase 2: 450 MW

They showed an updated picture of what the Texas data center would look like, and you immediately see what they plan to do with half of the new land they are acquiring:

It’s where the Behind-The-Meter power generation will come in.

Cash burn is manageable

Cash sits at >$80M as of April 30, confirmed on the earnings call. SharonAI note is fully prepaid.

Burn rate sits at $7 to 8M/quarter. The current runway extends well past the Oct 8 deadline (the loan covenant). Management states that current liquidity is sufficient for NUAI's phase one equity share without material near-term dilution.

Sharon AI: No problem

During the Sharon AI earnings call, they implied that the hyperscaler had walked away from the deal with NUAI.

The rebuttal from the CEO:

"I can't speak for Sharon directly on why they chose to word the paragraph the way they did, but I can say that I don't blame investors for being confused… we put out a press release on July 1st of 2025… This group [the LOI counterparty] was not considered a hyperscaler and I don't think they would be today… that LOI was not related to a lease and it wasn't with a hyperscaler. It was related to a sale and us hopefully providing some behind the meter power."

This is a thing from the past, and it was not the “hyperscaler deal”.

Sharon AI is now fully off the cap table. (paid back in cash).

Moving along.

The bad

Well, it’s not exactly bad. But the company keeps talking about “building a platform” and now building an 8.4 GW total campus.

And I admit, they did refrain from showing the atom, modular design in this recent business update.

I get it. Big Hairy Audacious Goals. (BHAG)

But in business, the saying is: Sell 1 dollar first. Then sell some more.

Sell that 200 MW first. Then sell some more.

Now, if you compare NUAI to other companies like IREN, APLD, etc., and assume they can actually reach that number, on a pure peer-to-peer comparison, you would be looking at a stock price between $50 and $100. (I considered a 17% of the total platform value because of their GP/LP structure).

The future

The most important task at the moment is to finalize the Joint Venture Agreement with Stream.

Why?

Here’s part of the transcript with Charlie Nelson, who was leading the business update:

“We were also getting offers to buy this from actual hyperscalers. And one of those we did sign an exclusivity agreement because we kept turning them down on selling. And we wanted to work with them on how we can partner with you to own something here. And essentially, it was you’ve got to work with a really reputable developer. We went and tried to find one. And that exact same party, as we said before, sort of led us to a different party. And now here we are with that party stream. They’ve been incredible to work with, just every day checking boxes…

And the same party, that hyperscaler is still the person that we hope will be our tenant that our designs are specifically for.“

This means that:

  • A hyperscaler wanted to buy the land in Texas, but NUAI refused

  • They agreed to maybe partner up, but only on 1 condition: they had to bring in Stream

That means a final contract with Stream is key to signing on the hyperscaler.

Here’s their slide:

It’s true that they are working on all three in parallel, but the thesis now becomes clearer:

  • Agree on the final joint venture with Stream

  • Get those power purchase agreements for 200 MW

The hyperscaler can come on board for phase 1.

The market is hungry for compute

I bought into NUAI because I believe powerful forces are at work, creating unique scarcity in the market.

  • Companies are hungry for tokens

  • But token prices are rising because of the lack of compute

  • More computing needs mean more power requirements

If NUAI can pull it off, it would be an incredible feat. This is startup land governed by experienced executives.

So my read of the current developments is positive.

But make no mistake. This is still a speculative play.

The downside risk decreases with each passing month. But if that hyperscaler does not sign, this company will be dead in the water.

You’ll receive an update on all the other positions in the coming week.

May the markets be with you, always

Kevin

]]><![CDATA[The 15 best stock pitches from Omaha part 3]]>https://www.100baggerhunting.com/p/the-15-best-stock-pitches-from-omaha-b73https://www.100baggerhunting.com/p/the-15-best-stock-pitches-from-omaha-b73Sat, 16 May 2026 16:01:34 GMTDear hunters,

This is part 3 of the best stock pitches from Omaha.

You can read part 1 here and part 2 here.

Each company will have:

  • A short description of what they do

  • The type of company they are

  • The pitch

Only 24 hours left!

If you hesitated about taking a paid subscription, we’re running a special Omaha sale for the next week. You’ll get 25% off an annual subscription. Prices of the annual subscription will go up permanently after the sale. This is your chance to lock in the current rate.

GET 25% OFF

Now let’s look at the last 5 stocks. The best ones are at the end of the article.

5 Wise- Ticker WSE on the Nasdaq)

We wrote a deeper article about Wise here.

Description: Wise is a cross-border payments company that moves money between countries for people and businesses more cheaply and easily than their banks.

Their customer: A Polish nurse works at a London hospital. She earns about £2,800 a month and sends £400 home to her mother in Krakow on the first of every month. She walks into her bank, asks for an international transfer, and they tell her it'll cost a £20 wire fee. What they don't tell her is that the exchange rate they're giving her is roughly 3% worse than the rate you'd see on Google. So, on a £400 transfer, she's actually paying about £20 in visible fees plus another £12 hidden in the exchange rate. Total costs: about £32 to move £400.

Now she tries the same thing with Wise. She gets the mid-market exchange rate (the real one, the one banks use among themselves), and pays one small upfront fee of roughly £2. The money arrives in her mother’s account in seconds.

Wise built its own payment rails instead of using the bank network. When HSBC sends money abroad, it goes through a system called SWIFT, which is basically a chain of banks passing your money along, each taking a cut. Slow and expensive. Wise instead set up real local bank accounts in roughly 10 countries and connected directly to local payment systems like ACH in the US and Faster Payments in the UK. When you “send money from London to Krakow,” nothing actually crosses a border. Wise just takes pounds from its UK account and pays out euros from its Polish account. The money doesn’t move.

This is the moat. Building those direct rails takes years and a banking license in every country. Once you have them, your unit cost per transfer is a fraction of what a bank pays. Wise then deliberately cuts prices every year, making it impossible for competitors to catch up. The take rate has fallen from 67 bps to 53 bps in a single year. Volumes grow faster than prices fall. Revenue keeps going up.

Type: Economies of scale growth machine

The pitch: Global cross-border payments are a £32 trillion market. Wise has roughly 5% of personal, 1% of SMB, and almost nothing of the £16 trillion enterprise segment. That last bucket is the real motherload. Banks still own it because they make fat margins on FX. It will take years to gain a foothold, but the runway is huge.

The competition isn’t really competition. Remitly is a consumer remittance app. Revolut is a super-app.

Here’s the data from fiscal.ai:

The FCF per share is larger than the revenue per share, but that’s because of the deposits.

Wise is deliberately under-earning today to build a payments network so cheap and so wide that nobody else can profitably catch up, and the market is punishing them for it.

4 Organo (6368 on Tokyo Stock Exchange)

Description: Organo is a Japanese water treatment company that builds the ultra-clean water systems chipmakers like TSMC use to wash silicon wafers.

Customer: To make a chip with circuits 3 nanometers wide (about 25,000 times thinner than a human hair), the engineers need water that is insanely clean. Not "bottled water" clean. We're talking water so pure it has almost no dissolved minerals, no metals, no microbes, and zero particles bigger than 10 nanometers. This is called ultrapure water (UPW). A single fab can use tens of thousands of tonnes of it a day.

As of FY03/25, Organo controlled an estimated 70 to 80% of TSMC's water treatment plants and roughly 100% of plants supplying fabs at 10 nanometers or smaller. TSMC alone is 14% of their revenue. Their core customer base is the world's most advanced semiconductor fabs, plus a long tail of pharma plants, power stations, and food refineries that also need very clean water.

They make money by building the water treatment system on site and then running it forever. This creates enormous switching costs.

A “boring” 80-year-old Japanese plumbing company that quietly became a chokepoint in the global semiconductor supply chain, paid first to build the water plant and then paid forever to keep it running.

Type: Slow growing but high operational leverage

The pitch: Organo has a dominant market share. Their margins have expanded over the last few years, but it’s not by accident. There are 3 reasons: the service business is growing as a share of revenue (now 40-50% of sales). Tight UPW supply lets Organo charge premium prices on new builds. High-margin specialty chemicals and resins are made in-house. This is why earnings have grown faster than revenue.

TSMC is building fabs in the US (Arizona), Japan (Kumamoto), and Germany. Organo is following them. Their US business is being built out alongside TSMC's CHIPS Act fabs. The pharma side, especially injectable drug water, is also accelerating.

This is a strong company with a moat, where EPS is growing faster than revenue. The market has taken notice and priced it higher.

Subscribe now

3 Samsara (Ticker IOT on NYSE)

Description: Samsara is a software and sensors business that helps trucking, construction, and field service companies see what their trucks, equipment, and workers are actually doing.

The perfect customer: Meet Maria. She’s the dispatch manager at a 90-truck regional trucking outfit in Memphis. Her job is to know where every truck is, whether her drivers are tailgating or falling asleep, when the next oil change is due, and why fuel costs jumped last month. In practice, she has a whiteboard, a stack of paper logbooks, and a phone that won’t stop ringing. When a truck misses a delivery, she calls the driver. When the driver doesn’t pick up, she calls his wife. That’s her tracking system.

Last year, she tried calling one of the big incumbent telematics vendors (think Verizon Connect, Geotab, Trimble). They told her: Six months of implementation and a six-figure quote. And software that still required three separate screens to locate one truck.

Samsara is a subscription software business.

  • A trucking or construction company signs a 3-year contract.

  • Samsara ships gateways, AI dashcams, and tags. Each device plugs in or sticks on in minutes.

  • The hardware streams data to Samsara’s cloud-based software.

  • The customer pays roughly $27 to $33 per vehicle per month for basic GPS, climbing to $40 to $60+ once you add the AI dashcam and driver coaching.

What’s interesting is the per-application, per-asset pricing.

If a customer has 50 trucks and wants both GPS tracking AND the video safety camera, that's 100 subscriptions, not 50. Every new product Samsara ships (equipment tags, site cameras, maintenance, workflows) is sold as a separate per-asset line item to the same fleet. Over 95% of their $100K+ customers buy two or more products, and that cross-sell is the growth engine.

Here’s a chart you don’t see every day. Revenue and free cash flow per share are growing, and earnings yield to. That means the stock price is dropping while the business seems to be getting stronger and stronger. (stock is down 40% over the past year)

Type: Fast grower

The pitch: The market puts Samsara in the SaaS bucket and judges it on SaaS multiples. That's the mistake. Samsara is not a SaaS company. It's the company digitizing the physical operations of the working world, and the SaaS label undersells both what they do today and what's coming next.

Once Samsara's hardware is wired into a customer's 10,000-truck fleet or bolted onto 200 construction job sites, switching vendors is not a software decision. It's ripping off the most sticky band-aid, breaking compliance reporting, driver coaching workflows, insurance arrangements, and dispatch routines.

The next bet is AI for the physical world: robots, autonomous trucks, smart job sites, and electrified fleets. Samsara processes over 25 trillion data points a year through GPS telemetry, AI dash cams, and sensors, the kind of dataset you cannot scrape from the internet.

They have seen strong performance over the past years, but missed their last quarter (revenue, not EPS!).

If you want full access, consider the current 25% discount to continue reading.

Let’s dive in:

Read more

]]><![CDATA[The 15 best stock pitches from Omaha part 2]]>https://www.100baggerhunting.com/p/the-15-best-stock-pitches-from-omaha-757https://www.100baggerhunting.com/p/the-15-best-stock-pitches-from-omaha-757Fri, 15 May 2026 13:03:29 GMTDear fellow hunters,

This is part 2 of the best stock pitches from Omaha.

You can read part 1 here.

Each company will have:

  • A short description of what they do

  • The type of company they are

  • The pitch

Only 48 hours left!

If you hesitated about taking a paid subscription, we’re running a special Omaha sale for the next week. You’ll get 25% off an annual subscription. Prices of the annual subscription will go up permanently after the sale. This is your chance to lock in the current rate.

GET 25% OFF

Now let’s look at the next 5 stocks. The best ones are at the end of the article.

5 Plover Bay Technologies (1523 on the Hong Kong stock exchange)

Description: Plover Bay is a Hong Kong hardware-and-software company that makes routers and subscriptions for customers who need their internet to never go down.

Their customer: A firefighter captain rolling out of the station in Los Angeles during the January 2024 wildfires. He needs maps, weather feeds, a live video link to dispatch, and a connection to the hospital if a firefighter gets hurt. The cell tower three miles away is on fire. The cell tower behind her is congested because half the city is calling family. His satellite dish works, but only when the sky is clear of smoke.

He calls a normal enterprise networking vendor like Cisco. Cisco sells beautiful gear for a corporate office. They don’t really sell a single box that takes one Verizon SIM, one AT&T SIM, one Starlink dish, and one satellite phone, and welds them together into a connection that just keeps working when any one of them dies.

They use a land-and-expand business model.

Three revenue lines, stacked on top of each other.

  1. Sell the box. A router with multiple slots for SIM cards, ethernet cables, and satellite uplinks. This is the chunky upfront purchase. Hardware was about 71% of revenue in 2024.

  2. Sell the subscription. The router’s magic only works if you pay an annual fee for SpeedFusion (their bonding software, which ties multiple internet links into one) and InControl (cloud software that lets you manage a fleet of routers from a dashboard).

  3. Sell the warranty. Annual support contract. Renewable.

It’s a capital-light business as all manufacturing is outsourced.

Type: Steady growing cash printer

The pitch: It's not that this company keeps growing earnings by 25% each year. Or that it gives back most of the cash through dividends. All those things are true.

The pitch is that almost 60% of their business comes from the US, and they have announced a spin-off to list on the Nasdaq in 2026.

Compared to US peers like Ubiquiti or Digi International (with much lower margins), that could lead to a 50% upside just from the rerating.

Here’s the overview: look at the FCF margin!

The spin-off is on track to be completed towards the end of the year.

As you might have noticed, I use the same charts from fiscal.ai in every pitch. All per-share metrics are combined with the forward earnings yield. You can set this up once by creating a metric template:

Fiscal is running their annual 25% discount. You can use this link to get access.

25% OFF FISCAL.AI

4 Tasmea (TEA on ASX)

I wrote about Tasmea in a previous article.

Description: Tasmea is an Australian industrial services group that fixes, maintains, and upgrades the equipment inside big mining and utility plants for the giant companies that own them

Customer: A plant manager at a BHP iron ore site in the Pilbara, a remote corner of Western Australia. Her plant moves rocks, crushes them, separates iron ore, and loads it onto trains. The plant runs 24/7. Every hour it sits idle, the company loses about $500,000 in shipments. One morning, a giant electrical switchboard fails. She needs specialist high-voltage electricians on a plane today, with the right safety credentials, the right insurance, the right relationship with BHP’s procurement team, and the willingness to live in a camp 1,500 km from anywhere.

She calls a big generalist engineering firm. They build new plants. They don’t fly six tradespeople into a desert tonight to fix a switchboard. She calls a local electrician. He doesn’t have the high-voltage tickets or the BHP-approved safety system. She calls a global services giant. They want a 12-month contract negotiation. None of them are built for what she actually needs: specialist trades on call, sleeping in a camp, fixing the plant by morning. That’s the customer Tasmea was built for.

The actual customer base is what Tasmea calls “blue-chip essential asset owners”: large miners (iron ore, gold, copper, lithium), electricity transmission companies, water utilities, and oil and gas operators. In FY25, around 94% of Tasmea’s revenue came from repeat customers, and a single customer accounted for about 24% of total revenue.

The business model is simple: It’s labor arbitrage. Tasmea bills out skilled tradespeople (electricians, boilermakers, riggers, fitters) at a markup over what it pays them. That alone is a normal staffing business.

What makes Tasmea different is this:

The customer doesn’t care what Tasmea costs; they care that the plant keeps running. When a $4 billion iron ore mine is losing half a million dollars an hour, nobody is haggling over the electrician’s hourly rate. That’s why Tasmea earns roughly 25% gross margins and 15% EBITDA margins, while peer construction and engineering firms earn closer to 10%. Combine that with 70+ Master Service Agreements (multi-year contracts that lock Tasmea in as a preferred supplier), and you get a record $600 million secured order book heading into FY26.

Type: Roll-up (serial acquirer)

The pitch: It’s not complicated. You’re buying a high earnings growth roll-up (30%/year) in a boring industry at a forward P/E of 19. Tasmea profits from an electrification tailwind in Australia. Their electrical segment grew 66% in 2025 and contributes 44% to net profit. Management guides towards 110M in NPAT by 2028-2029. At today’s multiple, that’s a 3.7B company compared to a current multiple of 1.5B.

You can see from the chart that revenue is growing fast. Their capex seems low, but that’s because many acquisitions are cash, not reflected in the capex number. So the actual number per share is double or triple what is shown in the chart.

I like Tasmea; I liked it even more 2 months ago when I first wrote about it 😉 (when the price was 50% lower). But the company keeps performing, and more and more analysts have taken notice, which explains the multiple expansion.

Subscribe now

3 Amadeus IT Group (AMS on Bolsa de Madrid)

Description: Amadeus IT Group is a Spanish travel technology company that runs the booking plumbing between airlines, hotels, and travel agencies.

Customer: TAP Air Portugal. A medium-sized airline with a decent network out of Lisbon, mostly flying Europeans to Brazil. They want their flights to show up when a travel agent in Singapore types “Lisbon to Rio” into a screen. They also want to be bookable by a corporate travel desk in Frankfurt and an online travel site in Dubai.

So they call Singapore. “Hey, can you integrate with our reservation system?” Singapore says no. Singapore already has 700 airlines they could integrate with one by one. Nobody is building 700 custom phone lines. Dubai says the same thing. Frankfurt too.

That’s the customer Amadeus was built for.

Airlines plug into Amadeus once. The moment they do, they are bookable by around 190,000 travel agencies and online sellers worldwide. The same model works in reverse for the travel agents.

Amadeus runs three businesses, and the mechanism is different for each. Total group revenue in 2025 was €6.5 billion.

  1. Air Distribution (€3.1 billion in 2025). This is the GDS, short for Global Distribution System. A giant electronic marketplace. Airlines list their seats. Travel agencies search for them. When the agency books a ticket, the airline pays Amadeus a fee per booking, roughly €5-€6 per ticket. The travel agency pays nothing. Amadeus often pays the agency to use Amadeus instead of a competitor. Those payments are called incentives, and they are a major cost line item.

  2. Air IT Solutions (€2.3 billion in 2025). This is software-as-a-service for airlines. Amadeus runs the airline’s reservation system, inventory, check-in, and boarding. Their flagship product is called Altéa. The airline pays a fee for every passenger boarded. If Altéa goes down, the airline cannot fly.

  3. Hospitality and Other Solutions (€1.1 billion in 2025). Same model, but for hotels. Marriott and Accor both pay Amadeus to run their central reservation systems. Add some payment processing and travel data on top.

This is a two-sided network. The more airlines on Amadeus, the more useful it is to travel agents. The more travel agents on Amadeus, the more useful it is to airlines. Sabre and Travelport are the only real competitors. That is the whole market. Three players. The switching costs are enormous. When Ryanair runs on Amadeus’s low-cost-carrier system Navitaire, ripping it out and replacing it is a multi-year, multi-million-euro project that nobody wants to greenlight. So they renew. Ryanair just renewed for another stretch, marking 25 years on the system.

Type: Monopoly in a 3-player oligopoly (mature growth)

The pitch: Amadeus has a 40% market share of global airline bookings, 20%+ net margins, zero net debt risk, and multi-year recurring contracts with the world's biggest airlines and hotel chains.

It is the picks-and-shovels play on global air travel growth (which has outpaced GDP for 50+ years), it grows revenue mid-to-high single digits, returns cash via dividends and a €1.3bn buyback program, and it just signed Marriott, Accor, British Airways, Air France-KLM, and Lufthansa Group to long-term deals. The stock is down 30% over the past year, trading at the lowest multiple in a decade.

The stock is down on AI fears. But they seem to be overblown.

Booking a flight is not the same as searching for a recipe. It requires real-time inventory, fare rules, seat maps, payment processing, and PNR creation (PNR = the booking record). AI agents that try to book directly still need to hit somebody's infrastructure. That infrastructure is Amadeus, Sabre, or the airline's own system (which is often, you guessed it, Amadeus's Altéa).

Amadeus has already signed British Airways, Air France-KLM, and Lufthansa Group as launch customers for Nevio, their AI-native airline retailing product. So far, the data says AI is making them more relevant, not less.

The beat expectations on their latest Q1:

The bet is achieving about 15% annual growth in earnings, dividends, and buybacks. If the stock reverts to its prior multiples, you’ll earn more.

Now let’s get to the final 2 on this list.

If you want full access, consider the current 25% discount to continue reading.

Let’s dive in:

Read more

]]><![CDATA[My investing tech stack]]>https://www.100baggerhunting.com/p/my-investing-tech-stackhttps://www.100baggerhunting.com/p/my-investing-tech-stackThu, 14 May 2026 14:32:09 GMTHi hunters,

I’m a sucker for improving my workflows and testing new tools.

Here are the tools we use in our investing process.

Let me know in the comments what your tech stack looks like!

Leave a comment

Our stockbroker: Interactive Brokers

The number 1 question we receive: It looks like a great company, but I cannot buy it with my current broker.

That’s where IBKR comes in.

It allows us to invest easily and at low cost worldwide. We trade stocks in the US, Canada, Europe, Asia, Australia, and the UK.

It’s the only broker I know that has this breadth of possibilities.

GO TO IBKR

Our financial software: Fiscal.ai

I wrote about fiscal.ai in depth here.

I think there’s about 8 hours left to grab their 25% discount if you’re interested.

We have been using fiscal for several years now.

We mainly use it to quickly have a first look at a company in the first hour of our due diligence.

Some advantages of fiscal.ai I really like:

  • The main dashboard gives you a snapshot of a company

  • Creating custom financial templates (we like the per-share metrics)

  • Create custom KPIs

  • A solid visual interface

GET 25% OFF FISCAL

Our favorite AI LLM: Claude.ai

We use Claude Code to build tools and analyze investments. You can find more details about how we use and master Claude in our second newsletter, "Invest with AI."

  • Claude Chat and projects can be used for analyzing a stock with the right prompts and data → See an example here

  • Claude cowork and skills can be used for repeat work and analyzing a series of companies at once → See how that is done here

  • Claude code can be used to build custom tools, often Python scripts with a financial API that can do a lot of work for you on auto → See how that is done here

GO TO CLAUDE

Our financial data API: EODHD

EODHD provides the backbone for our personal investing tools. It provides up to 30 years of worldwide financial data for over 100,000 public companies. The value-to-price ratio is unparalleled in the data it provides.

You can check it out here.

Easy money transfer: Wise

Not only are we a shareholder, but we have also been using Wise for multiple years, since we trade in multiple currencies worldwide.

When you use the Wise app for a cross-border money transfer, and see how seamless and transparent it works, you really wonder what the legacy banks are doing.

Do they want to get disrupted?

If you’re interested, this link allows you to quickly set up an account:

That’s the main tech stack. Seems quite simple, right?

What’s yours? Is it more complex? Why?

Leave a comment

May the markets be with you, always!

Kevin

Note: I do have a Mac mini, which runs multiple jobs and manages my second brain. But I would need multiple articles to explain how this is set up. It’s not that simple 😉

]]><![CDATA[This tool has saved me hours on stock research]]>https://www.100baggerhunting.com/p/this-tool-has-saved-me-hours-on-stockhttps://www.100baggerhunting.com/p/this-tool-has-saved-me-hours-on-stockWed, 13 May 2026 13:03:52 GMTFiscal.ai is a stock analysis tool that I use on a daily basis.

And I only recommend tools to others that I actually like and use. (full tech stack incoming in about a week).

So here are 5 incredible features why I think fiscal.ai should be part of your stock research workflow.

Note: Fiscal is running their 25% off sale. It ends tomorrow. So if you want to grab a discounted subscription, you have 1 day left to profit from their promotion.

25% OFF FISCAL

1 Financials: Custom Metrics

Fiscal.ai allows you to create your own custom metrics. Each business should be viewed with a different lens.

Take a business like MELI for example where most investors say the name in the same breath as Amazon. (Meli is a different beast though).

But one thing they have in common: The business is not optimized for profits. Management invests and takes a long-term approach.

The result is that a combination of popularity, and not optimizing for profits, make it so that their P/E multiple is always high.

But is the P/E ratio the right ratio to look at?

Meli combines online retail with finance. It invests for the future. Net income might not be the right metric. You could consider cash flows, but same thing. Free cash flow will vary with investments and be distorted by cash deposits on the balance sheet (which you can’t count upon).

Also, you’re not taking into account the growth of the company. Static, trailing ratios have no real use when you have a company growing at 30%+ each year.

So here’s what fiscal allows you to do.

Create a custom ratio.

This ratio is the EV/GP/G ratio.

  • Correct the Total Enterprise Value for the cash deposits

  • Divide by the gross profits

  • Divide by the gross profits growth (I took 1 year, but you can take 3 years)

When we plot this in fiscal, we get this (blue line):

  • The P/E ratio tells you, it’s still high, but the cheapest ratio at which MELI has ever traded

  • Our EV/GP/G ratio tells you it’s priced back as in the downturn in 2022

We took gross profits as so much is going on below that line in the income statement, that it’s the “cleanest representation” to the past.

So we love this: Custom Metrics

2 Business owner mode

When we buy companies in the public market, we should approach it as if we’re buying a private company.

When you’re interested in buying a local company, you don’t know what the price is at the start of your due diligence. You cannot be influenced by the price.

That’s not the case in public markets.

But fiscal has a solution: owner mode.

Here’s the normal view you get when you select a company:

Now when you select “owner’s mode” in the settings.

You get the following view:

Metrics related to pure price are masked.

I don’t know which other tool can do this.

Subscribe now

3 Awesome Customer Service

They still have real customer service.

Why real, because yesterday, I was battling with an AI Chatbot from Paypal and wanted to shoot myself in the head. (stuff for another discussion, but creating a business account on Paypal was an absolute nightmare.)

And when I use my Custom Metric “per share” template

This is what fiscal shows me:

The past metrics don’t look that bad. I in fact you have growth at 10% in diluted EPS, but earnings yield growing at 15%. So the business has become more profitable AND “cheaper” at the same time.

But cheaper doesn’t mean cheap.

Forward earnings yield sits at 12%, but Paypal seems to have a growth problem. These are quarterly results. Look at the Q1 FCF/share result for each year:

  • Q1 2024: 2.3

  • Q1 2025: 2.2

  • Q1 2026: 2.3

But i’m straying of course. That’s not what I wanted to talk about.

I had a question about using those custom metrics, and within 12 hours, I received a reply by mail:

And it seemed it was me who was at fault by the way. I was using it wrong.

The cherry on the cake.

Even the CEO replies to questions.

This is not an invitation to start asking questions like this to the CEO. I admit, I was a bit too forthcoming 😉

4 Breath of data

We invest in microcap companies worldwide. That means we want worldwide data.

We are invested in the US, Canada, Australia, the UK and Japan.

And even in the UK, on the small AIM market, fiscal has the data.

It has never let us down in the breath of data it has. Over 50,000 companies (and ETFs- worldwide).

5 The one thing that bothered me

When I use software, I want speed. It needs to feel snappy.

Even waiting several seconds for a company to load is too much for me.

And in the past, fiscal.ai was not the fastest.

But again, they listened to their customers.

You can try out their free plan, and test it for yourself.

Conclusion

This is just a small glimpse of what fiscal has to offer.

Their 25% off sale is ending in about a day.

You can still profit from their offer. And if not, which tool are you using and why?

Leave a comment

May the markets be with you, always!

Kevin

Atomical Capital

Note: Full disclosure, the link above is an affiliate link. If you decide this software to be useful and buy a subscription with fiscal, that will help this newsletter.

]]><![CDATA[The 15 best stock pitches from Omaha]]>https://www.100baggerhunting.com/p/the-15-best-stock-pitches-from-omahahttps://www.100baggerhunting.com/p/the-15-best-stock-pitches-from-omahaFri, 08 May 2026 13:59:53 GMTI heard over 50 pitches in Omaha.

I made a selection of the 15 I consider to be the best.

Since I want to provide you with a first analysis, the 15 best pitches will be split into 3 parts, as otherwise this article would become way too long.

Each company will have:

  • A short description of what they do

  • The type of company they are

  • The pitch

I’ll need to do more due diligence on several of these names, but I think it’s worth getting them to you as quickly as possible. (After all, I did have 2 stocks go up over 100% while sitting in my research pipeline. So I do plan to publish ideas more quickly, so you might benefit from them.

I pitched our last deep dive, which had a great quarter and is up 20% since March.

If you hesitated about taking a paid subscription, we’re running a special Omaha sale for the next week. You’ll get 25% off an annual subscription. Prices of the annual subscription will go up permanently after the sale. This is your chance to lock in the current rate.

GET 25% OFF

Now let’s look at the first 5 stocks. The best ones are at the end of the article.

5 AMCORI Group (AMCO on AIM in the UK)

Description: Amcom buys small, boring British engineering companies from retiring owners, makes them run better, then bolts more of them together.

Imagine a 68-year-old guy in Sheffield who runs a valve repair shop. He started it in 1987. Forty employees. Nice profits. His customers are power stations and oil refineries, and they’ve been buying from him for 30 years. He wants to retire, but his kids don’t want the business. He’s too small for private equity. Selling to a competitor would gut his loyal team. He’s stuck.

That’s the seller Amcomri targets.

Type: Tiny serial acquirer

The pitch: They have a long runway to reinvest capital profitably (the ability to buy small, family-owned businesses with little competition at less than 5x EBITDA). They have a very experienced management team with deep operational and deal-structuring expertise. The underlying businesses are resilient and mission-critical (high recurring revenue, low customer-concentration risk, less susceptible to AI disruption).

Now, fiscal has a great feature that shows revenue per share along with earnings per share.

Which means, as you can see, despite overall revenue growing, revenue per share dropped, indicating they issued capital to finance acquisitions.

Fiscal.ai has a revenue and earnings beats/misses view now. We’ll use that for each company. If you’re interested in a 25% discount on a fiscal.ai subscription, they are running a sale at the moment.

Here’s what it looks like for AMCO.

I think this could be an interesting idea. But I would need to dig a lot deeper.

The price of the stock has seen only strength, which I like a lot:

The bet for this company would be:

  • The founders keep finding deals at 4-6x EBITDA over the next 5-10 years

  • Their own equity multiple stays at 9-10x or rerates higher

  • They avoid blowing up an integration

  • The UK SME succession wave keeps producing supply

  • They eventually scale to £30-50 million EBITDA, at which point institutional money piles in and rerates the stock

So, despite the long runway, the only potential problem is that a lot has already been priced in.

Now let’s go from a microcap to a bigger company.

4 Primoris (PRIM on NYSE)

Description: Primoris is the company that physically builds and maintains the boring but essential infrastructure that keeps America running. The high-voltage line, the gas main, the solar farm out past the highway, the long-distance oil pipeline crossing Texas. None of that installs itself.

They are a specialty contractor: they don’t own the wires or pipelines, they get hired to put them in the ground and keep them working by utilities, oil and gas operators, solar developers, and state highway departments.

The business splits into three buckets.

  • Utilities is the steady recurring half (gas, electric, and telecom distribution, mostly under long-term Master Service Agreements).

  • Energy/Renewables is the growth half (utility-scale solar, battery storage, refinery work, and highway projects for state DOTs).

  • Pipeline Services is the legacy half going back to the company’s 1960 roots as a California pipeline outfit (big oil and gas trunk lines, pump and compressor stations).

Although it’s a bit big for my taste, with a market cap of almost 6B USD, I wanted to take a look at this as a data center infrastructure play. And since the company missed its quarterly estimates, the stock dropped 40%.

I mean, it went from a 12B USD market cap to 5.8 in a matter of days…

Now, before jumping into this stock, it did trade at a forward P/E of 38 before the drop, which is staggering for an infrastructure services company. They missed their renewables segment and had to cut their year-end guidance.

And we’ll need to dig, but it has almost always beaten expectations.

Now, what’s great about these kinds of companies is that their backlog gives us some visibility into the future.

From their latest report:

About 5.2 billion of that management states should be converted into revenue over the next 12 months, which sets a floor for upcoming revenue. (The Master Service Agreement part) (compared to 7.6 billion in revenue in 2025).

The pitch: The infrastructure supercycle is driving massive spending in the utilities and energy sectors; Primoris has an enormous backlog. There is a significant uptick in energy prices, datacenter construction, and electric utility projects. Their proximity to Texas energy companies and long-term relationships with utilities.

So the final question for this company is: Is their renewables setback a one-off? If so, and they resume growth in 2027, you could buy this company at an attractive price.

Based on the new guidance from management, the stock is trading at a forward P/E of 24.

Subscribe now

3 Lesaka Technologies (LSAK on Nasdaq)

Description: Lesaka is a South African fintech for people and small businesses that regular banks ignore. In townships across Southern Africa, most commerce happens in spaza shops, taverns, and gas stations. The owners and their customers mostly never had bank accounts. They live on cash. Cash gets stolen and can’t be tracked, so no bank will lend to them. Lesaka fills that gap from both sides.

For shop owners, it installs card terminals, sells software to run the business, and lends working capital based on the cash flowing through the till.

For consumers, it offers a bank account, small loans, and affordable insurance, such as funeral cover.

Lesaka earns a cut on every card swipe, interest on every loan, a premium on every policy, and a margin on every prepaid airtime and electricity top-up.

Previous earnings and revenue beats/misses from fiscal.ai.

And revenue and earnings per share per quarter (as this company had to raise capital to acquire other companies)

Type: Fast grower. Inflected Earnings.Consolidator.

The pitch: Lesaka is a Fintech displacing cash transactions in South Africa, serving the underbanked with high incremental margins. It just shifted to positive earnings based on their earnings report on the 7th of May. Based on expected earnings in 2027, it sits at a forward P/E ratio of 14, which is lower than that of emerging-market peers.

However, this forward P/E is based on non-GAAP EPS numbers (see figure below). Because Lesaka has made several acquisitions, amortization is not included.

3 forces working together could make this an interesting setup:

  1. The amortization will naturally increase GAAP EPS over time (but management must refrain from another big acquisition). But the business is framed as a consolidator, so they will keep acquiring companies.

  2. The company’s market cap is still small. As the market cap increases, Emerging Markets funds can come in, and this will have a positive impact on the multiple

  3. The business growth itself, where management guides towards 30% operating margins (from the current 21%)

Final note: The local devaluation of the currency (the ZAR) will reduce the final ROI, but if the management base case holds, it should be more than offset by the company’s growth.

Now we get to the best. The ones I regard as the highest potentials for multibagger returns.

If you want full access, consider the current 25% discount to continue reading.

Let’s dive in:

Read more

]]><![CDATA[5 (life) lessons from Omaha and the Berkshire Hathaway AGM]]>https://www.100baggerhunting.com/p/5-life-lessons-from-omaha-and-thehttps://www.100baggerhunting.com/p/5-life-lessons-from-omaha-and-theThu, 07 May 2026 13:06:38 GMTHi hunters,

I consider myself lucky.

Lucky to travel to Omaha for the second time, accompanied by friends/stock nerds. Some of them also run stock investing newsletters like from Potential Multibaggers and Pieter from .

It was my second time in Omaha, and even though Buffett no longer runs Berkshire Hathaway, and the overall turnout was lower than last year, the ecosystem around it is still thriving.

On the left you can see Michael Gielkens from Tresor Capital with his father. It was touching to see them enjoy the week together.

Lots of events. Stock pitches by some of the best investors I know. AI workshops by startup founders from Silicon Valley. And of course, hanging out in the evening with friends.

And the serendipity is strong.

During the day, you randomly bump into some juggernauts in the industry, like Bill Ackman:

In the photo: Me, Jurgen Vluijmans (Backstage Communication), Bill Ackman (Pershing Square), and David Bazyn (Director Volvo Trucks USA)

My goal is always the same for these kinds of events:

  • Surround myself with super smart people

  • Try to learn as much as I can, be a sponge

  • Apply those lessons to my stock analysis (and life)

The most important lesson I learned from nuclear engineering, when applied to stock investing, is to always stay humble. Always keep learning.

If you know me, you know my favorite slogan:

I never lose. Either I win or learn.

- Nelson Mandela

Let’s get into some of the highlights of the past week

(you can find the best stock pitches in a separate article in the coming days).

Subscribe now

Lesson 1: It’s about the people

Imagine you’re like my son. You collect Pokémon cards.

One of his favorite pastimes?

To go to a Pokémon con to talk and interact with like-minded people.

The most important boy on earth, but I’m biased.

Buffett and Charlie have created something similar.

And it’s not just about investing in stocks.

It’s about values. About integrity and respect.

40,000 people don’t show up to hear what the holding company Berkshire Hathaway is all about.

They want to seek out the present-day philosophers. They want to feel connected to like-minded people.

And that’s why I believe the introduction video they chose at the beginning of the AGM was so fitting. To emphasize that even though Buffett is no longer at the helm, those values and virtues will be kept alive.

I’ve watched this video multiple times but those last 10 seconds still give me goosebumps:

Lesson 2: Maybe there is an AI bubble forming

As you know, I’m knee-deep in learning how to use Claude for stock analysis. I created a whole new newsletter dedicated to it.

A workshop was organized by 5 university graduates from Munich, who declined high-paying consultancy roles and moved to Palo Alto in San Francisco. There, they got sponsorship from Andreessen Horowitz. So now, they spend 16 hours a day getting up to speed on AI and figuring out which startups to launch.

When I asked them what the current bottleneck is to launch a great startup within the AI space, the answer was:

  • Raising capital is not a problem (VC’s back the team)

  • The bottleneck is finding great problems to solve

AI allows us to easily build software. In a world where everyone can code, the most important question is:

What should one build?

The fact that they have no problem raising a couple of million USD to launch a startup, even without a clear idea, smells like bubble territory.

This workshop was incredibly inspirational. I will write more on this topic in a future article over on “the other newsletter”.

Lesson 3: Even AI disruption will take time

I attended a fireside chat with none other than Bill Ackman as the main speaker. Pershing Square recently did an IPO. They now have 3 vehicles you can invest in. (PSUS on the New York stock exchange, PSH on the London Exchange and PS on the NYSE)

The fireside chat was organized by UBS, and quickly became a Q&A between the audience and Bill, who was accompanied by his Chief Investment Officer, Ryan Israel.

I must admit, I did not expect it, but the quality of the answers they gave blew me away.

Pershing invests in quality companies that they can grab at a great price following some kind of problem. Some examples from the past:

  • They bought Chipotle after the food contamination crisis in 2016

  • They bought Alphabet in 2023 when it dipped due to AI fears

  • They bought Restaurant brands in 2020 when COVID struck

And for just a moment, I thought: Maybe I should buy Pershing Square 😉

But I think I’m sticking with our microcaps.

What I learned the most was their holistic approach to investing. When asked about AI and how fast it would disrupt all industries, Ryan mentioned a historical study by Carlota Perez, who wrote: Technological Revolutions and Financial Capital. (I ordered it on Amazon)

Screenshot from the book cover: Technological Revolutions and Financial Capital

Carlota’s delve into history shows that, over and over again, total disruption will take 20 to 30 years to achieve full market penetration.

Especially physical AI, (confirmed by the AI workshop I attended) will take a lot more time to develop.

Physical AI: AI systems that operate in, interact with, and understand the physical world, moving beyond software-only tools to control hardware via sensors and actuators

The main reason: It’s a lot harder to gather quality training data, and create the feedback loop of continuous improvement within physical AI. Basically, you need to put a robot to work, measure everything and feed it back into the system (like Tesla FSD)

Lesson 4: The time to live is now

Vitaliy Katsenelson, from the intellectual investor, invites everyone for breakfast each year.

More than 1,000 registered.

From the Vitaliy breakfast

He takes about 2 and a half hours to do a Q&A where people can ask questions about investing, life, and everything in between.

His responses are thoughtful, and more importantly, when he doesn’t know, he says so.

Some of the highlights I picked up: (and I’m using the Feynman technique here to simplify, I hope I’m not butchering Vitaliy’s responses…)

  • When asked about how to achieve financial independence, remember that life happens now. Not after you’ve hit your number

  • How to raise your children when you have money, so that, as a man said, “They don’t become pricks”. Use mindful scarcity. Scarcity leads to struggle and innovation. It helps people grow.

  • On when to sell: The better the company, the more optionality it has, the less you should be inclined to sell. It’s difficult to create proper DCFs for these kinds of companies because of that optionality.

  • What he likes about Watches of Switzerland (Ticker WOSG). WOSG looks like a retailer, but it’s not. It’s a second derivative bet on Rolex. Rolex determines whether you can add an additional store. Rolex’s job is to maintain the scarcity of its product. Half of the sales are from the UK, the other half from the US. But based on population, if the US matched the UK’s sales, revenue would increase 6-fold.

For a quick research report, just use the research function within fiscal.ai

Oh, and, if you’re interested in fiscal.ai, they offer an exclusive discount of 25% at the moment.

Lesson 5: The time to live is now

Important lessons merit repetition.

And I repeat this one because I often forget it myself.

When you’re passionate about stocks and building new things, you sometimes lose yourself in the frenzy of work.

We did our best to enjoy our stay in Omaha and live in the moment.

This closing picture is a testament to that:

Closing dinner with the Belgian/Dutch crew.

So now that this article comes to its end, do one thing for me.

Close your computer, or put down your smartphone.

Hug your children and family. Go grab a bite to eat with a friend.

Enjoy the moment.

We’ll talk about stocks again in the coming days.

May the markets be with you, always!

Kevin

Atomical Capital

]]><![CDATA[370,000 words on investing, 186 articles]]>https://www.100baggerhunting.com/p/370000-words-on-investing-186-articleshttps://www.100baggerhunting.com/p/370000-words-on-investing-186-articlesFri, 01 May 2026 13:03:44 GMTI’m writing you from Omaha.

Because of the busy schedule over here, I won’t be writing my usual articles this week.

So I figured it’s time to add some much-needed structure to what already exists.

It has taken more than 2 years to write it all, but Substack is not the best for easily navigating it.

This page will help you with that!

Articles with a * are paid. If you want access to the full library ⬇️

Subscribe now

Categories: Start Here · Portfolio Performance · Stock Deep Dives · AI Tools for Investors · Investment Ideas · Frameworks · Lessons from Great Investors · Earnings Updates

Start Here

New to 100 Bagger Hunting?

These are the foundations of how I think and invest.

Portfolio Performance (most recent first)

Annual, half-year, quarterly, and monthly updates on how the portfolio is doing.

Subscribe now

Stock Deep Dives (most recent first)

Individual company analyses, destination analyses, and new buy pitches.

AI Tools for Investors

How I use AI (GPT, Claude, Perplexity, Grok) to accelerate stock research. Love AI for investing?

➡️I have a dedicated newsletter on the topic: Invest with AI.

Investment Ideas

Screens, lists, and roundups — raw idea flow to dig into.

Frameworks

The reusable checklists, mental models, and tools I use to evaluate companies.

Finding Great Companies

Valuation & Multiples

Management & Capital Allocation

Buying, Selling & Position Sizing

Mindset & Mistakes

Lessons from Great Investors

Takeaways from the masters: Buffett, Lynch, Greenblatt, Karman, Kantesaria and more.

Earnings Updates

Quarterly and half-year check-ins on portfolio holdings.

May the markets be with you, always!

Kevin

]]><![CDATA[Introducing Atomical Capital]]>https://www.100baggerhunting.com/p/introducing-atomical-capitalhttps://www.100baggerhunting.com/p/introducing-atomical-capitalFri, 24 Apr 2026 14:44:29 GMTAs you might have noticed, we are taking the next step in our development.

I present you:

Atomical Capital

You can check out our site here.

We’ve been hard at work behind the scenes to set this all up. And both 100 Bagger Hunting and Invest with AI will be 2 publications that fall under the Atomical Capital vision.

Once the rebranding is done, I will talk more about what Atomical Capital is.

But regarding why we did it.

Because we had to.

We are driven by always making things better. And that is what we hope to do here.

And as you noticed, I said WE in the introduction, because I’m no longer alone in this endeavor.

  • Harvey is our software engineer. He helps build the backbone of Atomical Capital.

  • Lars is our analyst. This allows us to look at more companies and find more opportunities.

But we’ll go deeper into this in a later article.

I want to introduce you to something we built in secret (well, kind of) over the past 2 months, and you’ll see the results of that in this post.

Our investment process looks like this:

It’s a closed loop: one agentic tool produces an output for a human, who judges, adapts, and provides input to the next tool.

We want to zoom in on a tool called Tracker.

Tracker is an agentic tool that:

  • Reads our deep dive thesis on file

  • Gathers ALL data on ALL our companies every week

  • Then tells us if the thesis is:

    • INTACT

    • UNDER STRESS

    • BROKEN

It does not judge.

Judging whether we hold or buy more is our job. But the tracker helps us save hours tracking all our companies.

It delivers a dashboard like this:

And it writes a weekly report which highlights:

  • If certain companies are under stress or not

  • What happened that week with each company

  • What we should look out for

We’re still iterating on the design, but we’re glad with how it turned out.

Subscribe now

The thesis the tracker uses must have a specific structure and quality. We spent a lot of time rewriting our originals to make sure the tracker can use them.

You can download the full thesis for Pharmx Technologies on this page.

Microcap Thesis
72.3KB ∙ PDF file
Download
Download

Ok, so enough about Atomical Capital.

Any feedback would be appreciated! Especially if you think Tracker would be useful to you!

Leave a comment

Now let’s get the meat: Our portfolio

Portfolio update

Our portfolios reached an absolute peak at the end of 2025 (remember we trimmed our biggest position)

But since then, the first 4 months of 2026 have not been kind.

Our outperformance over the S&P 500 has decreased from more than 50% to about 9% today.

Are we worried? No.

Because our biggest positions, those companies have only gotten stronger.

But let me show you the actual output from Tracker and what it showed us.

It’s pretty amazing…

Read more

]]>