100-bagger hunting - 5 takeaways from 2024
Avoid my mistakes
My favorite quote is the following:
I never lose, I either win or learn
Nelson Mandela
That is how I approach investing and life in general. My goal is to get better and closer to mastering the field of equity investing. Providing quality in my writing or investment cases is the goal, the motivator. I find joy in “creating something of high quality,” whether it be a great article, a cool drawing (I’m terrible at it), or an outstanding investment case.
The only way to achieve this quality is to become a learning machine and be brutally honest with yourself. Let’s take a look at what went well, and some mistakes I made, and transform them into actionable takeaways.
The article is structured in 3 parts:
The 5 Takeaways of 2024
My favorites (books, etc.) of 2024
On writing an investing substack and the future
If you want to check out 2023 first, here it is ⬇️
Part 1: The 5 Takeaways of 2024
Writing is gold
2025 is my 13th year of investing in the markets. It feels like I learned more in the last year than in the first 12 years combined, all a result of starting this publication.
Writing is a form of thinking. It brings focus to your mind, and even if you have no interest whatsoever in starting a website or substack, here’s my first takeaway of 2024
Takeaway n°1: Write, and write some more. For every company analyzed, write down why you think it would be great to own it, or not. Journal how you think about the company, and how your thinking evolves.In 2024, I wrote down my thoughts while researching companies in a Google Doc. The problem: It’s difficult to retrace information. There is no coherent timeline of how my thought process evolved. This is important because your mind will trick you. In 2025, I will be using a tool called journalytic.
Incredible investors like John Huber use it, so it should be solid. I’ll let you know what I think about the tool over the course of 2025.
Patterns trump process
I think and write where my curiosity leads me. I started Atmos Invest in September of 2023 with several deep dives on companies. The last company write-up is from May 2024. Since then, I’ve written extensively about different companies, but always in a short form manner. Most of the longer articles were about the process of investing.
As I mentioned in this post ⬇️
the return on invested time from reading investing books and thinking about the process decreases over time. You learn more by studying lots of different companies. There is a reason why Peter Lynch believed this:
“The person that turns over the most rocks wins the game”, he said, “And that's always been my philosophy.”
Going through lots of company filings, looking at business models, incentives, etc. if you know what you’re looking for, over the course of time, pattern recognition will kick in, and that’s what we want.
So in 2025, the articles will be again more focused on companies. I need to find the right balance.
Takeaway n°2: Turn over a lot of rocks. There are no shortcuts to finding winners.Winners and losers
2024 overall was a good year as I managed to achieve my 15% hurdle rate. (YTD, 10 days later I’m at 20%, the result of running a concentrated portfolio.)
But the outcome does not necessarily equal great skill or process. Our goal is to build a process that is repeatable so that we achieve long-term compounding performance. In that sense, a YTD is meaningless.
The winners
I’ve had some big winners in 2024 with a company like Adyen doubling and others rising more than 50% in a year. My favorite one at the moment is Innovative Food Holdings (IVFH). After doing my due diligence, I rather quickly built a full position. (too quick?)
IVFH is a textbook example of a ‘good turnaround’ with incredible management. There is more to come from this company in the coming years I believe.
I talked about knowing what good looks like ⬇️
Was IVFH’s performance skill or luck? There was definitely some luck involved. Some of the outcomes in their business model (like the new cheese business they launched) could not have been anticipated. This is a great sign though. If management can generate positive optionality, then it might repeat that feat in the future.
The losers
2 companies in 2024 essentially went nowhere: Tinybuild and Inmode.
When doing a post-mortem:
My thesis for Tinybuild was a turnaround: It has not happened yet, and they only have one shot of turning the ship around by generating a big hit with a game called Kingmakers. I trimmed the position in 2024 and will be more ruthless in 2025 if performance isn’t there. If Kingmakers doesn’t deliver, I’m out.
My thesis for Inmode is that it could stabilize their business. The market was pricing in a downturn. Inmode is in a downturn, so the market was right and I was wrong. I was planning on selling the position, and suddenly management did a 180 and decided to do a massive buyback program. What to do in 2025? The company is still struggling with growth, but it is still printing cash. I plan a switcheroo in 2025.
Takeaway n°3: Be ruthless. If a thesis crumbles or a company weakens, and you did not expect it, cut and take the loss.Patience is key
A main lesson from 2023 was to build positions slowly. I did not specify however what slowly means. Now I know there are super investors like Druckenmiller or Soros who say to “go for the jugular” and if you find an opportunity that seems incredible, you should put in 10, 20, or 30%+ as a position.
I am not Druckenmiller.
Remember that every famous billionaire investor is an anomaly. That does not mean we can’t learn from them, but we should not blindly copy their quotes.
So in 2025, I plan to build positions over multiple quarters.
At the end of 2023, I wanted to do less, and let my holdings do the work. I showed you this:
As you can see based on a number of trades I did less in 2024. I believe it is not that useful. Imagine you build a position over 5 different buys. That is 1 buy decision and 5 trades. The KPI becomes meaningless.
Takeaway n°4: Build positions slowly. Use multiple quarters to confirm your thesis of the investment.In the end, it’s all about valuation
Whether the company is good, bad, or downright ugly, at the right price, it can be a great investment. There is a reason why Joel Greenblatt puts so much emphasis on valuation work.
If you’ve read my 2023 annual review, I tracked how much time I spent each week on investing and I’ve kept doing that in 2024. But that’s like asking an NBA player to go train for an hour without setting goals for what he has to do in that hour.
We need to track the reps, we need better, more specific goals. For 2025, I’ve set a number of companies I want to analyze but more importantly a number of valuations I need to do. Let’s put in those reps!
Takeaway n°5: Investing is about deliberate practice, putting the reps in. Read the filings. Do lots of valuations. Repeat.Part 2: Books, podcasts, and substacks
Books
I read about 1 book each month. Now I know there are people out there who read a book a week, and that’s incredible. But I’m a practical reader. I take notes while I read, and ask myself: How can I put some of the lessons into practice?
There is reading for entertainment, and there is reading to learn. When I read to learn it has to be followed up by something actionable, like a checklist, revising my process, or something else.
The picture displays the books I’ve read in 2024. Let’s make a top 3, shall we!
My 3 favorite books in 2024
The Psychology of Money by Morgan Housel: It’s not that I learned anything new, it’s just so well written. This is the one book I would give anyone who wants to start learning about money and wealth.
Warren Buffett and the interpretation of financial statements:: My expectations were low as I consider myself already having a pretty solid grasp of accounting. But the book was a breeze and went back to basics. A must-read for any starting investor.
Joel Greenblatt Columbia class notes: The way he explains things. How he approaches valuation. I don’t care if you’re a growth, quality, or value investor, there are lessons in there every stock picker should know. (it’s the pile of papers at the bottom of the stack in the picture)
I made a checklist out of book n°2, you can check it out below
3 favorite podcasts in 2024
JRo Show by John Rotonti Jr: John has not published any more episodes as he is starting a new chapter in his career. John is in the pursuit of mastering his craft. He focuses on a process that is quite unique. If I understand it, he’ll soon start publishing a new podcast.
Chit-chat Stocks: Ryan and Brett from
do exactly that. They talk about stocks. Remember turning over those rocks? Yep, that’s what they do.- : I go to listen to some great interviews with incredible investors. The content is broad so you’ll always find something of interest.
3 favorite substacks in 2024
There are some incredible substacks out there. So if you have one and are not in the top 3 don’t fret.
- . I discovered Sebastian's substack in 2023 and his work is exceptional. I am a paid subscriber (put your money where your mouth is). Disclosure: I already earned a multiple of an annual subscription based on one of his articles - after doing my own due diligence of course) Sébastien is a full-time microcap investor and writer.
- Christian plays on a different level. His articles are outstanding and as a bonus, he shares it all for free. He is a full-time microcap investor.
The Wolf of Harcourt Street: Combining growth and quality, he publishes in-depth articles about companies and has a weekly market movers post where he covers his companies. And you get all this work for free.
3 favorite investing tools:
This hasn’t changed compared to last year:
Finchat is an all-in-one investing research platform. Best value for your bucks. I have a premium plan.
Unclestock: Best screener with additional backtesting capabilities. I have the silver plan
X: You can love or hate Mr. Musk. But there are some superb investors posting on X, so I consider it a valuable tool to source ideas or look for opposing views. I have a premium plan.
3 favorite quotes
Each year, I like to select some quotes and frame them on my wall. The goal is to remind myself of these during the year. For 2025, I have chosen:
If you are ever tempted to look for outside approval, realize that you have compromised your integrity. If you need a witness, be your own. - Epictetus
The inverse of this can lead to misery. Staying humble, and doing the work is what matters.
No matter how isolated you are and how lonely you feel, if you do your work truly and conscientiously, unknown friends will come and seek you” - Carl Jung
Focus on the quality and hone your craft.
“You don't need a reason to add value to somebody's life. Nor do you need to get anything back from them. You add value because it's who you are.” - Renee Wade
Enough said.
Atmos Invest: Behind the scenes
I started this substack 14 months ago to focus on and share my investing analysis. My goal was simple: To learn and meet like-minded people.
The fact that since then, I was able to write 100 articles, meet countless super-smart investors, be featured in 3 podcasts, and was able to give a conference at an investing meetup blows my mind. You are now 3800 who receive my weekly emails and I thank you for taking some time to read my ramblings 🙂
My goal for 2025 is to step it up a notch:
Go deeper and write more in-depth articles
Write more company deep dives
Read more annual reports
As these deeper articles will require more time and some cash investment (data research), a paid option for this substack will be available in the coming months if that is something you would be interested in.
To improve the quality of my analysis and writing, I would like to:
Do more scuttle-butting in 2025
Meet more like-minded investors (I plan to attend the Berkshire AGM this year)
Take a more first principles approach: Do I understand the business into its most basic concepts
Every goal needs a plan on how to reach it and a way to measure progress. You could call it the trinity of improvement. Let’s take a look at some data.
Words published
Articles have gotten more frequent at the start of the year, but shote. Still, almost 180,000 words, I’m happy with that.
People subbed to Atmosinvest
A bump is usually the result of me doing an appearance on a podcast or doing a guest post. The rate of growth is increasing.
Where does everyone come from?
This map always blows my mind. It’s awesome!
Where does traffic come from?
This means 95% is within the substack network and 5% from outside. I have not been very active on Twitter for the last 6 months.
If you are interested in starting your substack, I’ve written down what I have learned in a Reddit post. You can find it through the button below.
Thanks again to the substack team and
for the help in 2024!Final thoughts
When looking at what is important in life, I visualize a pyramid:
The base is your health. You can have lots of hopes and dreams, but when you’re sick, you can only think of one thing: To be healthy once more.
As a diabetic, 2024 was not a good year for me, so I will make sure my health comes first in 2025 by focusing on my diet and exercise. I have specific goals and ways to meet them, but hey, you’re here for the finance part, and not for my breakfast cooking recipes to reduce glucose spikes in the morning 🙂
The second pillar is your relationships and experiences. As an introvert, I naturally shy away from large groups or gatherings or even meeting up with friends. I recognize this is something I need to address. Some of you might find this strange, as I spoke at an investor conference this year, but speaking in front of an audience is more like a 1 on 1, you and the audience.
Lastly, there is purpose. I find purpose in building or creating something or reading to satisfy my curiosity. A well-researched and written article, a neatly drawn infographic, it’s the pursuit of quality that motivates me. Like a chef who tastes his food and won’t send out a dish he/she is not happy with, I hope to serve you quality writing that I am proud of in 2025.
With that, I wish you all a healthy 2025 with great experiences and of course a lot of winners in your portfolio!
May the markets be with you, always!
Kevin
Awesome stuff Kevin! You are doing all the right things and Im happy to have found your substack.
Thank you for recommending us!