A software monopoly priced like a no-growth microcap

Nobody is looking

Hi hunters,

I stood in a room on Tuesday with 225 investors to teach a masterclass on how to research faster and cover more names with Claude.

The stock below came from a screen my agent ran. I teach how to build them, and early access closes on 20 September.

Here’s what’s inside.

Let’s look at the stock.

Stock in my funnel: Ilyda (ILYDA)

In short

• What: A Greek vertical-market software house selling mission-critical systems into regulated niches like pharmacies, universities, hospitals, and ministries

• Valuation: €56M market cap, €50M EV, 11x trailing earnings, 8x 2026E, 9.5x EV/adj. EBITDA

• Balance sheet: Net cash

• The moat: 70%+ of Greek pharmacies, 80% of universities, 85% of all student data. Their churn is under 5%, which proves the moat.

• The bet: A regulation-embedded monopolist in small niches, priced like a no-growth microcap, with multiple growth levers

• The problem: A 73-year-old founder-CEO, no earnings calls, undisclosed backlog, and a revenue line that depends on tender timing nobody can see

• Potential outcome: Not binary. The downside is a flat year. The upside is a re-rate and +20% earnings compounding

• My stance: Interested. Prepping it for a potential deep dive.

The longer description

Description: Ilyda (Ticker: ILYDA) is an Athens-listed software company founded in 1992. It builds and runs vertical software for industries where the software is not optional: pharmacy and healthcare (30% of revenue), mid-market ERP (25%), university management (30%, including public sector), and e-invoicing (15%). Recurring revenue was 50% in 2025. FY25 was a record: revenue €9.0M (+26%), 71% gross margin, 59% adjusted EBIT margin, €4.4M net income. 48 employees. The CEO guides to roughly 20% growth in 2026.

You know what they say about trying to switch critical software: It’s like going to the dentist without any anesthesia. It hurts!

Type: Profitable, founder-controlled microcap monopolist

Why it’s interesting: Because regulation writes the switching costs for them, and nobody is following this stock.

The rundown: At €56M for a business earning €4.4M with net cash on the balance sheet, you are paying roughly 10x for a company with 70% gross margins and dominant share in three separate niches. That is not a growth multiple. That is a “we have never heard of this company” multiple.

Here is what you actually own. Dioscorides runs more than 70% of Greek pharmacies; the competitors left the market. UniTron and MyCosmos sit under 80% of Greek universities and 85% of all student records in the country. Over 7,450 customers, churn under 5%, and more than 20% of revenue reinvested into R&D for ten years straight.

There is a second edge that took me a while to appreciate. Ilyda sells through IT-services houses and does not sell directly. That sounds like a weakness until you realize why the partners work with them: Ilyda does not poach their clients, unlike the larger Greek players. (Confirmed by multiple industry insiders)

The growth case, in the CEO’s own order of priority: international expansion of e-invoicing and MyCosmos through those existing IT-Service relationships; the Greek e-invoicing mandate, with e-invoicing guided to grow 50–100% in 2026 (10% of revenues in 2025); more public tenders, with the 2026–27 EU and Greek government spending looking positive; SLA conversion across 2027–28, which should push recurring revenue above 50%; and new verticals, starting with car rental software, already in discussions with the two players who control 75% of that market.

On capital allocation, I emailed the CEO and asked how he weighs M&A against buybacks at the current share price. He said it comes down to which yields the better return on capital. M&A stays selective and complementary, targeting verticals that add know-how, specialized people, and product speed. He will not buy revenue without strategic relevance, and he screens on return on capital, integration time, and technological fit. (a good answer from the CEO)

Risks

EU & State Tenders: Roughly 15% of revenue is tied directly to EU and state tenders, where timing is unknown, and awards are not always publicly announced. In addition, a significant portion of private-sector spending is supported by EU or government funding incentives. As a result, the path beyond FY27 depends on the next tender cycle and converting future contracts, neither of which is fully visible today.

Key-man risk is real. The founder-CEO is 73–74, owns 40.4%, and drives both the tender relationships and the instinct to spot the next vertical. His children are already on the management team, and a succession plan is in place.

Capitalized software costs were €4.4M in FY25, roughly 2.3x the prior year, and will likely stay elevated as it builds product and adapts software for new countries. Although I do not expect this to continue over the medium term.

Then the general disclosure problem: no earnings calls, unresponsive to non-fund investors (well, he did get back to me), and zero international coverage.

On their website, information is sparse:

But they did announce a new strategic cooperation in July 2026.

It’s a joint effort of Ilyda and 2 other companies to develop a new platform:

Two additional risks are Greek macro sensitivity and unproven M&A ambitions.

Current status: It is a genuinely good business at a boring price, with some issues around revenue visibility post 2027. But in my process, I’m leaning more on future predictability, so I need a better estimate of what the future might hold, not just the CEO’s word. This company could even be a prime target for a VMS serial acquirer.

Will dig deeper and decide if it’s worth a full deep dive.

As I mentioned at the start. If you’re interested in how to source more ideas or track your positions on auto with Claude. You can check out our early access course. It’s built from the ground up, even if you’ve just started using AI tools.

May the markets be with you, always!

Kevin