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Garhwali Jat's avatar

Kevin, I think INMD has value. My analysis :

Installed base is 25000 machines as of today. Life is 5 yrs (lease is 5 yrs and mgt alaso indicates life is 5yrs) but lets assume 6 yrs. We know the installed base since 2019 (its in your first deep dive) and till 2022. So we can easily model the pure replacement value from 2025 onwards - just installed base/6 starting from 2019. Even if INMD does not sell a single new machine from 2025 onwards, and as long as patients still want the procedures and doctors need the product, they will replace it every 6 yrs. I modelled that (just took 10 mins) and assumed a 35% Net Profit Margin and a 10X exit multiple ins 2029. I got EV of 870 million at 12% discount rate. Would love to see what you get. Its a very quick calculation.

The main questions are - will proceedure demand remain, what will competition do and what happens to INMD supply chain due to the war. If these three are fine, I think there is value here

I am still holding my small position

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Moshe's avatar

I understood "share premium" in their Consolidated statement of changes in equity to mean shares outstanding. It went from 374,992 on 6/30/23 to 417,923 on 6/30/24. Happy to be corrected if I am wrong. Not used to looking at financials from outside the USA.

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