Wild how Anexo’s edge really comes from exploiting a structural inefficiency in the legal + insurance system — fronting working capital where others can’t or won’t. What stood out to me was how the real bottleneck here isn’t demand or even margin, but settlement velocity and court throughput — a literal throughput problem, not a demand-side one. If that clears up (or gets monetized via litigation wins like Mercedes), you could see this thing re-rate dramatically. Also, the net-net angle layered with optionality from class actions gives this a Greenblatt-meets-distressed flavor I don’t see discussed enough. I’ve been writing a bit about similar "cash timing vs value recognition" mismatches lately — would love to swap thoughts sometime.
Thanks Kevin. This company bears a striking resemblance to an Aussie law company - Shine Justice (ASX:SHJ) in that both are 'Ambulance chasers' and derive their income in the main by selling 'legal hours' - in the case of SHJ on personal injury cases and class actions.
Both have the same problem - falling share price ($1 at listing in 2013 now 72c for SHJ) and building 'assets' rather than cash. If you look at the ratios, SHJ looks compelling value at 0.55x the tangible book value.
The real issue is how to do get the cash out. I see SHJ as value trap. Maybe your company has an opportunity to take a stag profit if the owners go through with the buy out.
Wild how Anexo’s edge really comes from exploiting a structural inefficiency in the legal + insurance system — fronting working capital where others can’t or won’t. What stood out to me was how the real bottleneck here isn’t demand or even margin, but settlement velocity and court throughput — a literal throughput problem, not a demand-side one. If that clears up (or gets monetized via litigation wins like Mercedes), you could see this thing re-rate dramatically. Also, the net-net angle layered with optionality from class actions gives this a Greenblatt-meets-distressed flavor I don’t see discussed enough. I’ve been writing a bit about similar "cash timing vs value recognition" mismatches lately — would love to swap thoughts sometime.
Thanks Kevin. This company bears a striking resemblance to an Aussie law company - Shine Justice (ASX:SHJ) in that both are 'Ambulance chasers' and derive their income in the main by selling 'legal hours' - in the case of SHJ on personal injury cases and class actions.
Both have the same problem - falling share price ($1 at listing in 2013 now 72c for SHJ) and building 'assets' rather than cash. If you look at the ratios, SHJ looks compelling value at 0.55x the tangible book value.
The real issue is how to do get the cash out. I see SHJ as value trap. Maybe your company has an opportunity to take a stag profit if the owners go through with the buy out.